Climate modelling is not the only way to predict what the climate-changing world will look like at the end of this century and beyond.
In fact, the immense complexity and caveats involved in trying to construct an accurate image of a carbon-soaked planet based on the original principles may not even make it the best.
Registered Professor Bill McGuire’s newsletter on Substack
On the contrary, we can look back in time to the various periods in the earth’s 4.6 billion-year history, when the prevailing conditions at that time helped to reveal the direction in which we are accelerating as the climate collapses.
spike
The idea that the past is the key to the present is a valuable creed in the fields of earth science and geophysics, and it makes perfect sense.
Just as observing natural processes happening today can help us explain the events in the geological record, what happened thousands or millions of years ago can tell us what we expect of the Earth in the 21st century.
A geological period that may be of great significance is the Permian, and the news is not good. About 252 million years ago, the Permian was abruptly ended by the largest mass extinction event in the history of our world.
Known as the “Great Death”, it has witnessed the extinction of almost all marine species and two-thirds of terrestrial life. The cause of this catastrophic death has long been a matter of controversy and controversy in the geological community. However, a study conducted a few years ago (1) convincingly pointed out the culprit-climate change.
This research conducted by scientists at Stanford University and the University of Washington provides strong evidence that the average global temperature at this time will rise by 10°C in just a few hundred years.
Species
As a result, the warm ocean may lose up to four-fifths of its oxygen, causing 96% of all marine species to disappear. On land, extreme temperatures wiped everything from the surface of the earth—from lizards and insects to early plants and bacteria.
The reason for the temperature spike is still uncertain, but the most favorite is the large-scale eruption of greenhouse gases triggered by the rising level of volcanic activity.
Instead of volcanic activity, due to human activities, about 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide are repeatedly injected into the atmosphere every year. This situation is beginning to look very familiar.
But you would definitely say that even the worst-case scenario cannot predict a 10°C increase in global temperature, right? Well, according to current trends, if the feedback loop really starts, it is not surprising that the global average temperature will rise by 3°C by 2100, and it may be close to 4 or 5°C or more.
This is half of the mass extinction, and countless species will be wiped out in the continuation of the sixth mass extinction caused by mankind.
atmosphere
To make matters worse, if we burn most (or not all!) of the known fossil fuel reserves and resources, it is calculated that our world may end up with an astonishing 16°C higher than the pre-industrial period (2).
Currently, the average temperature of the earth is slightly higher than 14°C. This will bring it to over 30°C. The result will be a mass extinction, which will put the mass extinction under the shadow, and it will be difficult for humans to survive.
Under these melting pot conditions, most areas on the earth are too hot for human physiology to function, so the best prediction for our race is that in the colder polar regions, a few pockets will survive.
So, this is very clear. We now know exactly what trajectory we will be on if we continue to burn fossil fuels and flood the atmosphere with carbon. Not going back to the future, but going back to the past. I believe we will never let this happen.
This author
Bill McGuire is Professor Emeritus of Geophysics and Climate Hazards at University College London and also Awakening the Giants: How Climate Change Causes Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Volcanoes. He is a contributor to the project IPCC 2012 SREX report on climate change and extreme events and disasters. His latest book, Heavenly species, Is an ecological thriller about climate engineering going wrong.Registered Professor Bill McGuire’s newsletter on Substack.
notes
(1) http://science.sciencemag.org/content/362/6419/eaat1327
(2) https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20140017102.pdf
