Studies have found that if global warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius, 1 billion people may live at potentially fatal levels of heat stress.
Heat stress-a dangerous combination of heat and humidity-currently affects 68 million people worldwide.
A new model by a consortium of scholars and the UK Met Office suggests that the number of people living under these conditions may increase by 15 times in a 2C scenario.
promise
Thermal stress is defined as wet bulb temperature (WBGT)-taking into account the measurement of temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation-above 32C.
It can cause heat exhaustion, and symptoms include excessive sweating and rapid pulse, which in turn can put stress on the heart and other organs.
Elderly people, people with health problems, and people doing physical work outdoors are most at risk.
According to analysis, according to the carbon emission reduction commitments of countries entering the Cop26 climate negotiations, the earth is heating up by 2.7C.
The International Energy Agency said that US climate envoy John Kerry revealed on Thursday that if the promises made so far during the summit are fulfilled, it will put mankind on a 1.8 degree Celsius track.
Extremely hot
The Met Office warned that in the future when global warming reaches 4 degrees Celsius, half of the world’s population will live in heat stress.
The thermal stress map is part of the research that predicts the future impact of the different consequences of climate change under 2C and 4C. It also studies river flooding, wildfire risks, drought, and food insecurity.
It is carried out by a team of international scientists in the Helix project funded by the European Union and led by the University of Exeter
The Bureau of Meteorology, on behalf of the British government, analyzed the areas where the most serious expected impacts overlap.
Dr. Andy Hartley, head of climate impact of the Bureau of Meteorology, said: “At present, some parts of India and other places have reached the (heat stress) indicator, but our analysis shows that with the rise of 4C, the risk of extreme high temperature It may affect people in large areas of most continents in the world.”
Impeccable
Professor Richard Betts of the University of Exeter and the Bureau of Meteorology, who led the Helix project, said: “This new comprehensive analysis shows the urgency of limiting global warming to well below 2C.
“The higher the degree of warming, the more serious and widespread risks people face in their lives, but if we take action now, we can still avoid these higher risks.”
Dr. Andy Wiltshire, head of Earth System and Mitigation Science at the Bureau of Meteorology, said: “Of course, severe climate change will have many impacts, and our map shows that certain areas will be affected by multiple factors.
“Perhaps unsurprisingly, some tropical regions are most affected. Countries such as Brazil and Ethiopia may face the impact of four disasters.
“If we want to avoid the worst consequences of unmitigated climate change, we need to reduce emissions quickly.”
This author
Tess de la Mare is a journalist for PA.
