Although Golden State has adopted a stricter approach to epidemic control, the number of daily COVID cases in California seems to be higher than the number of cases in Texas or Florida.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) As of November 9, the 7-day moving average in California was 6,297 COVID cases, compared with 3,102 in Texas and 1,470 in Florida.
California has taken a proactive approach to the epidemic. After having implemented mask and vaccine requirements for teachers, it became the first state in October to announce a vaccine requirement plan for school students.
In Florida, similar restrictions have proven to be controversial, where the school board has been Punish schools with regulations for wearing masksAnd Texas, the governor Greg Abbott Recently there was a mandatory ban on masks Overthrown.
Compared with Texas (54%) or Florida (60%), California has a higher proportion of the population (62%) vaccinated. New York Times.
If this seems difficult to explain, it is because, according to Jennifer Dowd, associate professor of demography and population health in the Department of Sociology at Oxford University.
She said: “We must remain humble and admit that we cannot explain or predict everything about this epidemic.” Weekly newspaper“From a regional point of view, the entire region of the United States that caught fire with the delta this summer is declining, while the regions that had a period of relaxation are now rising. This regional outbreak pattern occurs again and again, without seasonality or other Measurable factors explain it well.
“Comparing time snapshots from different locations and trying to link specific measures such as vaccination rates or mask use is futile. People on both sides of the COVID aisle seem to like these’trap’ moments of comparing current cases in different locations, but it is usually Misleading or just wrong.”
There are many factors at play, including the decline in vaccine protection over time. If many people in California are vaccinated earlier than others, this may mean a greater decline in immunity.
Rowland Kao, head of the Department of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science at the University of Edinburgh, said that age distribution and the way cases are reported also have an impact, which means it is difficult for states to fight each other.
However, while it may not be possible to explain the current figures with certainty, a potential possibility is that both Florida and Texas have Big explosion In recent months.
Nicholas Reich, a professor of biostatistics in the Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said: “For Florida, a rough calculation means that more than 10% of the population has been infected in the past few months alone.” On the other hand, since early February 2021, the number of infections per 100,000 people in California has not exceeded 200.
“As a result, compared with California, people in Florida and Texas have recently acquired much more infection-related immunity. This can at least provide a temporary buffer for the late fall waves in these areas.”
Srini Venkatramanan, a research assistant professor at the Institute of Biological Complexity and Initiatives at the University of Virginia, agreed. He said that these cases need to be explained in the context of the delta wave that hit the United States in the summer, which has a greater impact on some states than others.
He said: “Although Florida and Texas have experienced high case rates during the delta wave to a lesser extent, they have been relatively flat in California.” “So even though Florida and Texas are currently The incidence is slightly lower than in California, but it is declining from a much higher level.”
In fact, natural immunity was proposed by Kao. He pointed out that Florida has a total of approximately 3.6 million COVID cases and a population of 21 million. Its per capita number of cases is higher than that of California, with a total of 5 million cases out of a population of 40 million.
“Again, it also depends on when people are infected. Florida [has] Relatively speaking, there are more recent cases, so it has stronger protective immunity. “
But as Dodd pointed out, comparing cases is a difficult way to assess a pandemic and should be reserved.
The COVID vaccine has been shown to reduce the possible infections and serious health consequences of the virus, including hospitalization and death.
A recent study It shows that people who are not vaccinated in Texas are more likely to die from COVID than those who are vaccinated.
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