Minibus electrification roadmap

Minibus electrification roadmap

Decarbonization of the transport sector in African cities has been gaining momentum over the past decade. But while the focus so far has been on electric vehicles, motorcycles and public bus systems, most of the populations of these cities rely on different modes of getting around – minibus.

In most African cities, minibuses make up about 30% of all vehicles on the road and are often classified as “informal” or “popular” modes of transport because they are operated by self-employed rather than permitted providers. This distinction is partly why some transport planners are prioritizing replacing minibuses with other modes of transport rather than electrifying them .

recent Report Co-authored by Columbia Climate Institute Sustainable Urban Development Center This approach is challenged by assessing the potential for minibus electrification in three African cities in Nairobi, Kenya; Cairo, Egypt; and Cape Town, South Africa. In every electric minibus, the researchers found, electric minibuses have the potential to deliver far-reaching public health and environmental benefits — but without targeted support, their successful implementation is far from guaranteed.

The report was obtained through interviews with 21 practitioners in the electric vehicle field and was prepared in collaboration with researchers from the University of Nairobi Law School, the University of Cape Town’s Centre for Transport Research and the Cairo Transport Authority.

what is at stake

Many African countries currently import the vast majority – as much as 95% – Used cars and buses from the US, Europe and Japan. In addition to the safety concerns posed by the age and quality of these used cars, they run almost entirely on fossil fuels, thus perpetuating greenhouse gas emissions.Transport is the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions in the world, and transport emissions are increasing on the continent as African cities expand and industrialise 7% tax rate Per year.

“Transportation has proven to be the most difficult sector to decarbonize,” said report co-author Mohamed Hegazy, co-founder of the Cairo Transport Organization, “and this global need further conflicts with the development needs of the poorest.”

Minibuses burn diesel or gasoline, which greatly contributes to local air pollution in African cities. In Nairobi, the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter, the main air pollutant from diesel exhaust, has exceeded the limit recommended by the World Health Organization by more than 70%.fine particles are Major environmental risk factors for disease Worldwide, it has been linked to respiratory disease, lung cancer and heart disease. It also has a disproportionate impact on the health of low- and middle-income people, many of whom suffer longer exposures because they have to walk or take minibuses to get from place to place.

The few electric vehicle models currently being rolled out in African cities come from expensive foreign manufacturers such as Tesla. “So the benefits of this technology — better, safer vehicles and cleaner air — will be a very unique category,” said report co-author Jackie Kerr, co-director of the Center for Sustainable Urban Development. Jackie Klopp said. “They’re not being fairly distributed.”

The trend of offloading older cars to Africa is also likely to continue as wealthier countries accelerate their clean energy transitions.If cities like Nairobi, Cairo and Cape Town cannot upgrade and electrify their transport systems, they can quickly locked Decades of additional greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution.

Example of an electric minibus in Mexico. Photo: Gucisorio

road ahead

Despite the potential advantages of clean public transport, Hegazy emphasizes that minibus electrification would not happen without clean public transport major restructuring traffic department. Minibus operators need to have the organizational capacity to obtain financing opportunities and train drivers. Governments must create an adaptable regulatory environment so that electric minibuses can complement the existing larger public transport network.

Then there is the need for public investment – as Klopp puts it, “as much as possible”. Currently, the upfront cost of EVs is too high for most minibus owners to justify a switch. Some governments in Africa, such as Egypt and Kenya, have introduced tax incentives to encourage the purchase and manufacture of electric vehicles, but in the absence of additional financial and regulatory support, these incentives have failed to overcome the short-term advantage of maintaining status.

Additionally, people whose jobs depend on used combustion engine vehicles, such as selling auto parts for maintenance and repair, will need to be retrained or provided with other economic opportunities.

“There’s a lot of political economy that needs to be guided to move things forward,” Klopp said. “It takes vision, not reaction.”

Part of realizing the vision of electrifying minibuses is the transition to a cleaner grid – a feat that is easier for some cities to achieve than others.In Kenya, renewable energy accounts for more than 90% The country’s electricity generation, so when Nairobi switches to electric vehicles, greenhouse gas emissions will be drastically reduced. by comparison, about 70% In 2019, 10% of South Africa’s energy mix came from coal-fired power generation. Without simultaneous efforts to decarbonize the grid, the climate benefits of electrification of transport in cities such as Cape Town will be undermined by the growing demand for dirty energy.

Fortunately, more and more African cities and countries are pursuing clean energy goals. “By using our rich dataset on popular traffic, we hope Cairo can make the investment case for better regulation,” Hegazy said, “including actionable and achievable net zero [emissions] near-term goals. “

The report itself is starting to have an impact, including in Cairo, where the government is using its findings to inform several ongoing metropolitan transport plans and long-term electrification strategies.

“I think our report comes amid the prevailing rumours of decarbonising the transport sector, but in reality, this is just the beginning,” Klopp said.