Can nuclear power generation help reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas?
After Russia invaded Ukraine, International Energy Agency and European Commission The EU has proposed plans to rapidly reduce Russian gas imports.While the IEA expects that nuclear power generation in the EU could increase by 20 terawatt-hours (TWh) (or 2.7%) in 2022, the European Commission has only mentioned nuclear energy as a potential energy source hydrogen.
In this article, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global research scholar at the Center for Global Energy Policy, answers questions about how nuclear energy can help reduce gas demand in the EU.
Could nuclear power generation help reduce gas demand in Europe in the short term?
Nuclear representative about 25% Electricity generation in the EU. In 2020, nuclear power generation reached 688 TWh and is expected to recover to around 735 TWh by 2021. However, nuclear power generation is expected to fall by 90 TWh in 2022 and another 20 TWh in 2023. Reduced power supply from nuclear power is often compensated for by higher natural gas consumption.
The decline in European nuclear power production can be attributed to two factors. The first is French falling from 360 TWh in 2021; power company EDF expects French nuclear power generation to be between 295 and 315 TWh in 2022 and between 300 and 330 TWh in 2023. Taking the average of these assessments, this would reduce France’s electricity generation by about 60 TWh in 2022 and 50 TWh in 2023 2021 class. The lower power generation forecast takes into account that some French nuclear reactors will be shut down for 10-year inspections or controls due to suspected corrosion.
The second reason is the decommissioning of about 4 GW of nuclear power capacity in Germany following a decision made after the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. These nuclear power plants will generate about 30 TWh in 2020. Another 6 GW of nuclear power plants will be decommissioned in early 2023. From 2023, the impact will be mainly reflected. Nuclear power plants in Finland, France and Slovakia to start construction in 2022-23 can only partially offset this decline.
It is uncertain whether more nuclear power generation could come from other operating plants. Most of the plants outside France (about 39 GW) operate at a high rate (>90%), with 25 GW operating at a rate higher than 96%. In contrast, France’s load factor has been low (about 70%).
Can policymakers act to increase nuclear power and reduce Europe’s reliance on natural gas?
Policymakers can take two actions for nuclear power to help reduce natural gas consumption:
- Postponing the decommissioning of 6 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity in Germany and Belgium due to retire in early 2023. This can be challenging as these plants will need fuel and qualified labor to run them, but given that they are still operating, a decision could be made sooner rather than later, it could turn the process around. This action will not significantly change the situation in 2022, but will have an impact next winter and add almost 50 TWh in 2023, mainly from Germany and Belgium.
- Reboot of 4 GW recently decommissioned in Germany. This can be technically challenging and costly, and can face local opposition. With regulatory and political hurdles removed, swift action is required. Restarting plants has become increasingly difficult over time because they require labor and fuel that must be ordered specifically for each reactor in advance. However, by 2023, such a process could add another 30 TWh. How much that can be increased in 2022 depends on the speed of the process.
Nuclear power generation in France may be the most important factor in the near- and long-term increase in nuclear power in the EU. If the EDF can quickly increase its power generation to 2021 levels, then 10 TWh in 2022 (the upper end of the EDF projection) and 50 TWh in 2023 could be added. Given France’s generally lower load rates, there is room to go back to above 400 TWh – levels reached in the mid-2010s – but this may be limited by the number of 10-year inspections that occur in the next few years.
If these three options are realized, nuclear power generation in Europe will reach nearly 660 TWh in 2022, 760 TWh in 2023 and 735 TWh in 2021. Looking ahead to 2030, an additional 14 GW is expected to retire out of the 100 GW operating in 2021. Nuclear power plants can be reassessed to determine which plants can operate safely for longer. In addition, European countries willing to build nuclear capabilities can speed up their plans, as these plants typically take a decade to build. If approved by the European Council and Parliament, a new EU taxonomy of nuclear energy as a sustainable energy activity will help support financing.
this article is originally published Columbia Climate Institute Center for Global Energy Policy. Read more of their coverage The Ukraine crisis and how it affects energy markets, global security and the energy transition.
