The demise of the internal combustion engine
The Ford Model T didn’t end the horse, but it did replace it as America’s primary mode of transportation. Just as people still love and ride horses, people love and ride their classic cars. But starting in 2035, you won’t be able to buy a new one in California. The California state government is phasing out sales.As Coral Davenport, Lisa Friedman and Brad Plumer New York Times Last week:
“The rule issued by the California Air Resources Board will require all new vehicles sold in the state to be free of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide by 2035. The rule also sets an interim goal of 35 percent of new passenger vehicles sold by 2026. Zero emissions. This requirement will climb to 68% by 2030. Transportation is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.
California’s rules are obtained under the Clean Air Act immunity, originally enacted as part of the landmark 1970 federal aviation law. California’s ability to exceed federal requirements for half a century was eliminated by Donald Trump, but recently restored by Joe Biden. About a dozen states typically follow California’s lead, amplifying the impact of this groundbreaking state’s exciting move.
As one might expect, there are those who object to this violation of liberty. Some have identified barriers to implementation: The grid will be overwhelmed, there will be insufficient charging stations, electric vehicles will be too expensive, and Californians will only go to Nevada to buy a car. Obstacles are endless.
There are bound to be people who don’t follow this rule. But all these obstacles are irrelevant. There will be bumps along the way, but electric vehicles will replace today’s cars because they are based on superior technology. That’s why cars replaced horses. You can’t just park the horse and walk away. They need food, water, clean stalls, affection, and even medicine. Horses require more resources to maintain and are not as convenient or powerful as internal combustion engines. Originally, there were more stables than gas stations, but that changed over time. We will see the same shift, with charging stations replacing gas stations. Of course, every issue with electric vehicles is amplified by social media and the 24-hour news cycle, a fact that Henry Ford doesn’t have to deal with in modern life. (Breaking news: The Model T ran out of gas! The driver wished he hadn’t sold his horse!)
Electric cars are more expensive now, but eventually they will be price-competitive. Over their lifetime, they’ve gotten cheaper, but soon, even EVs will have as low a retail or capital cost as an internal combustion engine car. In the case of EVs powered by renewable energy, fuel costs will be low and predictable. Electric vehicles require fewer services and have fewer moving parts. On top of that, automakers see a huge opportunity to replace the U.S. car fleet, and they’re already betting on it. They are investing billions of dollars in electric vehicles.according to Davenport, Friedman and Plummer:
“Several automakers said their strategies were aligned with California’s goal of promoting zero-emission vehicles. GM said it was still reviewing the rule, but the company also has a goal of selling only electric vehicles by 2035. “GM and California share a vision for an all-electric future,” said GM spokeswoman Elizabeth Winter. Bob Holycross, Ford’s chief sustainability officer, said the company plans to invest more than $50 billion in electric vehicles and batteries by 2026 , and said the rule would “set an example for America.” A spokesman for Stellantis, which owns Chrysler, Fiat, Dodge and other brands, said the company intends to introduce 25 new electric models by 2030 to help support California’s goals. ”
In fact, car companies are happy that the risks they are taking by investing in electric vehicles now look safer than before California took action. The electric vehicles they sell will include lower-priced models, but their initial offerings include trucks like the Ford Lightening 150, sports cars, SUVs and other popular premium models. Instead of asking customers to sacrifice functionality, they actively design fancy new options that take advantage of new technologies.
I see this as a template for transitioning to an economy based on renewable resources: use technology to mitigate the worst impacts of consumer technology on the planet, but continue to develop and sell features that people want. When the useful life of the vehicle is over, the materials used in the vehicle eventually need to be recycled. We’ve seen this in rare earth minerals used in batteries, tires and aluminum. The most important thing is to transform the image of sustainability from dull sacrifices to exciting new products, features and services. Car companies seem to be doing just that.
Another notable feature of California’s move is the positive, technologically enforced impact of regulation. These new rules are not “work-kill” but work-create Stimulate. We’ve seen this in motor vehicles for decades. Car regulation focuses on safety first, requiring seat belts, then airbags. Regulation then focuses on the use of catalytic converters to control pollution and improve gas mileage. what happened? Once engineers figure out how to follow the rules, they have time to start improving the car. They used lighter materials, replaced mechanical parts with electronics, and they turned our cars into mobile computers with an incredible array of features, from sensors that prevent you from crashing into other cars to alerting you that there’s a baby in the car ‘s siren. The batteries and charging time required for first-generation EVs will eventually be replaced by batteries with greater range and faster charging times. We’ve seen these improvements kick in.
Federal policies such as the creation of the interstate highway system, insuring home mortgages, and making mortgage interest and property tax deductible stimulated land-use development patterns in major U.S. suburbs. The private sector builds suburbs in response to public policy in the form of federal incentives. While there are initiatives to build walkable towns and re-habitable cities, our overall pattern of land development requires the use of personal transportation. It’s not going away, and many Americans prefer this way of life. As a Manhattan resident, I prefer something different, but to many Americans, the way of life of the people in my neighborhood seems like a mystery. I remember interviewing a prospective instructor for a job and he was really curious about how I could get my groceries and dry cleaning home from the store without a car and driveway. In the days before Amazon Prime, I pointed to a guy on a bike and said, “Somebody’s groceries gone.”
We need to build on the environmental sustainability of what we have and acknowledge the appeal of a lifestyle that many people enjoy. California was built on cars, suburbs and highways. I might find a 12-lane highway intimidating, but Californians take it in stride. But this is the country that has led the way in cleaning our air for the past half century. They’re doing it again on climate change and electric vehicles. Even before the new rule, 12 percent of all new cars sold in California last year were electric, and this year, that number exceeds 16 percent. About 1 million homes in California have solar panels. Electric vehicles are an integral part of the home and transportation system and will one day be less damaging to the environment than today’s systems. California will get there first, and the world needs to be taught how to do the job.
