Aging populations, slow economic growth may amplify future health impacts of air pollution
A brick kiln near Dhaka, Bangladesh. (Kevin Krajic/Earth Institute)
The headwinds of an aging population and economic development could increase premature deaths from fine particulate pollution in some regions, even as the planet’s overall pollution decreases and the pace of climate change slows, according to A new study in the journal natural sustainability.
“When we consider the impact of pollution on future populations, exposure to environmental particulate matter caused by fossil fuel emissions is the greatest threat to global health,” said lead researcher Wei Peng in Penn State’s School of Engineering. “The health burden is unevenly distributed across countries and is disproportionately borne by the global South.”
The researchers integrated the World Climate Research Program Scenario Model Intercomparison Project and NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory They estimate how changing socioeconomic trends and efforts to mitigate climate change may affect global fossil fuel use and resulting air quality.
The resulting model estimated pollution exposure levels and premature deaths from 2015 to 2100 for different values of pollution control, socioeconomic trends, and climate warming. In all five scenarios, the researchers found that countries and regions that restricted emissions and reduced fossil fuel use had lowered pollution concentrations.
However, lower pollution concentrations alone do not necessarily reduce the projected death toll. According to the study, aging and declining baseline mortality (natural mortality unrelated to air pollution) were more predictive of premature death than exposure to air pollution alone.
“Emerging markets like China and India contribute less than half of global carbon emissions, but they suffer 60 percent of global health damage due to air pollution,” said Hui Yang, a Penn State doctoral student and lead author of the paper. ” That’s partly because they don’t have adequate end-of-pipe controls, or regulations in place to control how much emissions the industry can release into the air.”
In most future scenarios, China and India have the highest estimated premature deaths, the researchers found. This may be due to a lack of controls leading to higher exposure rates, coupled with an aging population that is more susceptible to pollution, Peng said.
“Regions with unsatisfactory socioeconomic conditions and limited access to health care tend to have higher baseline mortality rates,” Peng said. “If you add this to an ageing population, the death rate goes up. If we do more to clean the air and limit emissions, we have the opportunity to have a different future to combat the impact of the coming socio-demographic changes on health. some negative effects.”
co-author Daniel Westerveltresearch professor at Columbia Climate Institute Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Said the modelling framework could inform society’s next steps in mitigating the effects of air pollution. “Using Earth system models to understand potential pathways for future air pollution and associated health burdens is critical for developing effective mitigation strategies,” he said. “This work provides new insights into the impact of emissions, climate change, exposure levels, and sociodemographic factors in determining future health burdens from air pollution.”
Other co-authors include Xinyuan Huang of Pennsylvania State University and Larry Horowitz of NOAA. The research was supported by seed funding from the National Science Foundation and the Penn State-Monash Cooperative Development Fund.
