New York City’s dynamism is why our city won’t fail
My hometown is constantly changing, constantly adapting to new social, economic, technological and cultural conditions. While the official population ranges from 8.5 to 8.8 million people, New York City is home to more than 9 million people if you count those who live here illegally. Globally, there are many big cities. In America, we are by far the largest city. New York is always amazing how its neighborhoods are passed on and changed from generation to generation, while the city’s vibrancy and intensity remain the same. The pandemic calm in March and April 2020 was so profound because it was in stark contrast to the norm.
But all of that is in the rearview mirror. As people flee cities for the countryside during the pandemic, pundits are again predicting the demise of New York. We’re hearing it again, thanks to a surge in crime rates amplified by the masses and social media. New York remains one of the safest big cities in America, and crime rates today are much lower than in the 1980s and 1990s. While some crimes continue to rise, the post-pandemic wave of violent crime also appears to have peaked.according to NYPD:
“In October 2022, the number of shootings in New York City decreased overall in October 2022 compared to October 2021. Citywide shootings decreased by 33.6% (85 to 128) due to the number of shootings in the Bronx, Brooklyn, north of Manhattan. Big drop and Queens… The overall crime index in New York City in October 2022 increased 5.9% from October 2021 (10,930 vs. 10,324), largely due to a 19.3% increase in auto theft (1,244 vs. 1,043) 9.6% increase in grand robbery (4,564 to 4,163) and 8.9% increase in burglary (1,388 to 1,274).”
according to BloombergBy Justin Fox, New York City’s crime rate needs to be compared historically with other American cities today.according to fox:
“…2021 citywide homicide rate [is] Still less than a fifth of what it was in 1990. A geographical background that seems to be less well known is that while homicide rates across the United States fell sharply in the 1990s, the decline slowed in the 2000s and reversed starting in 2015. In Philadelphia, the homicide rate is now higher than it was in the early 1990s, and in Chicago it’s close. That means a growing gap between New York City and most of the rest of the country. “
Fox also compared urban safety to rural safety, which he defines as accidental death, and concluded that people in urban America are generally safer than those in rural America. fox Observed: “New Yorkers are only one-third as likely to die in any type of traffic accident as Americans as a whole. Putting homicide and traffic risk together, New York starts to look like a sanctuary American Holocaust. Of course, the media image is far from accurate, and politicians this election season may have convinced some that a city like New York is a living hell.
vice versa. If you looked at the five boroughs this past Marathon Sunday, you probably got the feeling that the city not only never sleeps, but never stops. This is a city in constant motion, and the only constant is change. Originally, New York was a trading city, and “New World” bounties were shipped to the Old World in Europe. With the completion of the Erie Canal, the trade outpost became the commercial center of the United States, and Midwestern agricultural and processed foods were shipped overseas. at 19th and 20th Over the centuries, New York has been a manufacturing city, and by 1950 we were producing more than 90% of American clothing. But then, modern container shipping, information and communication technology, and cheap labor created global manufacturing supply chains. Manufacturing jobs have disappeared from New York City, and we have now disappeared from the small pier on the west side of Manhattan. The 500,000 jobs in apparel manufacturing disappeared along with hundreds of thousands of other manufacturing jobs, and by the mid-1970s the city was nearly bankrupt.
But we don’t. The state’s Gov. Hugh Carey mobilized the business and labor communities, unions invested their pension funds in city bonds, the federal government passed loans, and under Mayor Koch’s leadership via Bloomberg, New York City is in a state of terror, economic Survived the transformation and flood and emerged on the other side as a reinvented city. We may no longer make American clothing, but 100,000 New Yorkers design and sell clothing. Over one million people attend college and graduate school in New York City. Over one million children attend K-12 schools.More than 80% of the city’s GDP is in service industryThere are approximately 400,000 people in education, 300,000 in health care, 200,000 in social services, 175,000 in finance, 300,000 in hospitality and 650,000 in technical, management and other professional services. Highline, which used to transport cargo to and from the terminal and our factory, is now an urban park that welcomed approximately 8 million visitors in 2019. This is different from the city I grew up in, thanks to a focus on infrastructure and climate resilience, we are in the early stages of transition to environmentally sustainable cities. It will take a generation to complete, but at the end of the transition, New York will be powered by renewable energy and will implement key elements of a circular economy.
In ever-evolving New York City, change is constant. Clothing factories are now art galleries, co-ops and high-end watering holes. The pain of the pandemic has been replaced by a rapidly rebounding tourism industry. This August, Ethan Wolf The City Guide reports that:
Governors in Texas and Florida are stoking xenophobia and sending immigrants north, while New York City is trying to get people work permits and provide food and shelter as they try to stand up. America may forget that this is a nation of immigrants, but New York City remembers and knows the strength and talent of our global workforce. Nearly 40 percent of New York City’s population was born in another country. Many of us are children or grandchildren of immigrants. Additionally, many New Yorkers come here from other parts of the United States looking for opportunities, excitement, and places they grew up seeing on TV shows and movies. Diversity and tolerance are the secrets to driving creativity and economic vitality in New York City. We know it takes a variety because New Yorkers come from all over America and anywhere on the planet.
It’s not a great place to live and work, but it’s full of surprises, and beneath that tough exterior often lies a deep sense of kindness and community. I’m far from an objective observer of all of this, but through all the changes and ups and downs, we always seem to come back. Today we hear that downtown office buildings will never be filled again, but that’s what the Financial District says, turning offices into housing and continuing to thrive. Many people leave New York, but they are always replaced by new arrivals. The energy and vibrancy of New York City is often reflected in the music, art and theater produced here. From jazz to folk to rock to punk to rap, from far-flung Broadway to the heart of Times Square; from street art to cosmopolitan, the energy and vibrancy of New York City is always there, and that’s why we don’t fail.
I know this is a dangerous political time of polarization and fear of violent discord. I’m a political scientist, but I believe that technological change drives economic change, and economic change drives social and cultural change – all other forces of change are more important than politics. We may have monetized political conflict, but I hope people find an easier and less disruptive way to make money. In the meantime, I will find solace and solace in the recent return to my hometown. 50,000 people ran the marathon yesterday and a million people cheered them on. New York City is back.
