A group of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) predicted in 1972 that the current civilization of mankind might end in the middle of the 21st century. Although the report was severely criticized at the time, new research shows that the predictions so far are very correct and that social collapse will occur in 2040.
The new research published in the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology assesses how things have progressed since the first report was published in 1972. motherboard Report. The new study concludes that the world may indeed witness the collapse of society as early as 2040. However, this will only happen if we continue to adopt a business-as-usual approach to overexploitation, overpopulation, and resource extraction.
This new study, written by Gaya Herrington, head of sustainable development and dynamic systems analysis at KPMG, seems to show that as long as we can change our approach, there is still hope for society. Herrington used ten variables to examine and analyze the MIT model (MIT uses a world simulation model to determine how the world will be between 1972 and 2060) to understand the accuracy of its predictions.
Photo: AFP/Greg Baker
These variables include fertility, population, mortality, industrial output, services, food production, persistent pollution, non-renewable resources, ecological footprint, and human welfare.
The new study uses model predictions for these markers and compares them with empirical data. As a result, Herrington was able to determine how close the scientist’s predictions were to reality. In addition, she calculated the current position of the world based on the model. Research has found that we are acting in accordance with several situations, both of which are not good.
These scenarios are integrated technology (CT) and business as usual (BAU2). The comprehensive technology scenario predicts that the recession will now begin. It pointed out some negative results, including short-term declines in food production and sharp fluctuations in various categories such as industrial output.
However, in this case, society will not collapse, and the bad habit of human consumption of resources will end with the development of new sustainable technologies. Food production will eventually resume.
At the same time, business as usual assumptions Humanity No changes will be made to their current behavior. This scenario predicts that economic growth will soon begin to slow down and hit a wall around 2030. However, this scenario does not predict stagnation, but start to collapse. By 2040, various indicators such as grain output, population, and total industrial output value will all drop sharply, while pollution will rise sharply.
To clarify the problem, Herrington told the motherboard that this predicted collapse “does not mean that humans will no longer exist.” However, it will destroy the way of life as we know it. “Economic and industrial growth will stop and then decline, which will harm food production and living standards. In terms of time, the BAU2 scenario shows a sharp decline around 2040,” she explained to the media.
In her research, Herrington to sum up“Therefore, both of these situations indicate that it is impossible to continue business as usual, that is, to pursue sustained growth.” “Even when combined with unprecedented technological development and adoption, business as usual [Limits to Growth] It will inevitably lead to a decline in industrial capital, agricultural output and welfare levels in this century,” she added.
