Because 2020 will not help 20​​21

Hello, my friend in the search industry. It is now November 2021, which means that if you have not done so, you are behind the plan for 2022.

I realize that most of us still haven’t recovered from the 2020 dumpster fire (take my beloved New York Jet as an example).

But 2020 also left us with a small PITA Easter egg: it is impossible to really use last year’s historical annual data to plan for 2021 or 2022.

Take a deep breath and accept the fact that you are already far behind 8 goals. Let us discuss how you will do this.

How strategic planning is usually carried out in search marketing

First of all, the important point is: if you are working towards the same game plan as the previous year, without a huge and radical change, then this process applies.

If you are moving from lead generation to an awareness method, this does not apply.

The most common way to search for plans for the New Year is to check historical data. Here, you check the year-on-year increase in cost per click (because honestly, it rarely drops).

All of this is done by the engine, so you end up with the behavior of Google Ads, Bing Ads and (for some advertisers) and even Yelp.

You can check the behavior of all campaign segments (including PLA, brand, non-brand, high volume, etc.) for seasonal, monthly or even day of week.

After doing this, you will find the difference in front-end and back-end traffic for the past 2-3 years.

You are looking for highs or lows caused by time or macro factors. These factors usually recur every year, or they are once and for all situations.

You may be paying close attention to the impression share data (especially the lost impression share).

Then, you can apply expected growth, spending increases, etc., within 365 days, adjusted up or down based on seasonal, quarterly, monthly, weekly, or daily recurring events.

And prosperity!

You have put all the expected demand and delivery for 2022 in a beautiful and neat small package.

The effect is very good-until 2020.

What makes 2020 a planning nightmare for SEM professionals?

Well, if you want to know this, you either have a unique and different form of planning, or you live in a cabin without internet, or you only enter the industry for one year.

These are all acceptable answers.

More than one factor contributed to the 202 confusion to a large extent:

• epidemic: This completely eliminated some vertical industries (ie, travel), shattered other vertical industries (ie, retail banking), and was the “golden age” for other industries, such as direct-to-consumer consumer products and home decoration.
• Election season: As politicians place ads targeting key terms in adjacent/halo categories, such as medical insurance/insurance, healthcare, and law, this hits certain verticals much more than others.
• unemployment: The impact of rising unemployment on vertical industries is different. You will often see longer buying cycles, higher prices, and heavy losses for luxury goods.

Step by step planning for SEM in 2022

So, what should you do now?

Well, the first thing is to take this seriously, but avoid panic.

Depending on your industry, your activities may have returned to normal levels before the pandemic.

For those who have seen a return to “normal”, this will be easier.

If you keep the same goal, this is what you have to do.

1. Pull data from January to September.

2. If you lose impression share due to budget…

Determine which events and months, if you do not have insufficient funds, determine opportunities (interesting little equation below).

3. Go further.

Now, if you want to take it a step further, you can calculate the missed opportunities due to missed impression share in rankings.

I learned this formula for the first time PPC math made easy Written by Rachel Law in 2019 and found it to be very accurate.

4. Add total opportunities If you miss the opportunity due to rankings and insufficient funds.

You got what you should have this year.

5. Review the average cost-per-click increase Monthly statistics for the past 2-3 years.

Apply this increase to your cost-per-click and cost (but not impressions or clicks).

I have a habit of 3%-5% growth every year.

6. Review the growth/activity changes in 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2019.

Compare with Q3 and apply the demand/CPC/flow to your current Q4 budget and forecast.

Boom, you have a plan for 2022 that has filtered our election season, unemployment, and pandemic noise.

SEM planning skills in specific scenarios

Now, all of this is fine, unless you are dealing with one of the verticals that has experienced a hard hit or a golden age.

Your process will be similar, but not exactly the same.

If your performance has not reset, or at least returned to pre-pandemic levels within the past 3 months, follow this method-remember, this is for advertisers who maintain the same goals.

If your geographic target is located anywhere outside of Asia/Oceania…

First extract the 12-month historical data from February 2019 to January 2020. This is the latest data that you can actually get before most parts of the world are really noticed.

If you are operating ads targeting Asia/Oceania, extract data from November 2018 to October 2019.

Determine the total chance of losing impression share.

Then increase the cost-per-click for 2 years.

This is based on 2 to 3 years of historical growth (at the end of the last month you withdraw), including the fourth quarter.

Note: If your annual growth rate is 3%-5%, be sure to scale up annually (i.e. a compounded 5% cost-per-click for 2 years yields a 10.25% growth rate).

Now is the important part-adjustments based on macro factors, including:

• Supply chain restrictions: Decrease by product until you can predict the correct delivery.
• As an abnormal promotion of the pandemic halo (ie DIY products): As more and more consumers return to their normal lives, start with a low-end budget and carry out test reserves.
• COVID has affected sales (i.e. gym membership): Plan the median demand between the normal season and the peak season.
• Main holiday sellers: Suppose holiday shopping starts in mid-November instead of October, shortening the time in 2022, but keeping an emergency budget for emergencies.

There are numerous factors, but the reality is that you need to consider the fact that your extreme downturn (that is, unreasonable) or improvement is based on macro factors and will eventually reverse unpredictably.

This means you need to be conservative in your budget and put the excess/surplus into the reserve test budget.

Once I have my transportation number, what should I do now?

Well, you can’t do anything. But this would be a terrible idea.

Instead, apply historical standardization (look for “standardized” in the data history above) to post-click performance data, such as conversion rate (CVR), cost per acquisition (CPA), etc., to your delivery figures. This will give you the expected back-end performance for this year.

But remember to be careful here.

Your extreme windfall in positive performance may only be temporary, so don’t use COVID numbers to predict positive performance. At the same time, if you experience a downturn, please use the data and hope it becomes positive.

If you only learn one thing from this column, I hope that 2022 will be a cautiously broadcast year.

In doing so, you will either satisfy your predictions or directly surpass them.

And cross your fingers, Murder Hornets will not try to make a comeback.

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Featured image: Shutterstock/N ON NE ON