Due to the large proportion of the vaccinated population, the number of cases is no longer a good predictor of the number of deaths caused by Covid-19. Hospitalization may be better (ICU hospitalization is even better). The statistics are not good, especially for Florida.
source: GS CovidTracker, August 2, 2021.
Obviously, considering Florida’s 21 million population, it is still a big problem, which accounts for 5.1% of US GDP (as of the fourth quarter of 2019). In contrast, California is the largest economic state, accounting for 14.8%.
This is IHME’s latest death toll forecast from July 30.
source: Want to know, Forecast on July 30.
The above IHME forecast was not included in the CDC aggregate forecast on July 26. When the CDC ensemble forecast was compiled, the IHME forecast was higher than the ensemble forecast, but not the highest.
source: CDC, July 26 ensemble forecast.
Since it is difficult to see, here is a detail.
source: CDC, July 26 ensemble forecast.
As of July 26, the available IHME forecast is about 1,000 deaths per week, while the overall forecast is slightly less than 600. The IHME forecast is at the top of the 95% range. The new ensemble forecast should be released on 8/4.
It is clear that Mr. DeSantis wants to avoid the specter of Covid-19. The waves of late summer and winter significantly slowed Florida’s recovery. The rising number of deaths may irritate — if not for additional public health measures, such as the governor’s ban on wearing masks — and then increase the disgust of those who think business as usual is at risk.
figure 1: Florida reported deaths due to Covid-19 (black, logarithmic scale on the left), non-agricultural employment, and sa (blue-green, logarithmic scale on the right) in the 2000s. The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray. The death observation in July is an IHME forecast. source: CDC, Want to know, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER and author’s calculations.
I expect that risk aversion will lead to a reduction in consumption of high-touch services. If masks and other public health measures are enforced, it may lead to a greater reduction in economic output in the short term (although in the long run, the total number of hours may be higher, just like the Eichenbaum pandemic/production Out of the model).
What lessons can be learned from past plots? Employment losses so far can be divided into two groups-high-touch services related to leisure and hotel services, and all other services covered by non-agricultural employment.
figure 2: The number of employees in Florida related to leisure and hotel services (blue bars) and non-agricultural employment (tan bars) in 2020M02, in the 2000s, sa source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, And the author’s calculations.
You can see that the employment recovery in the leisure and hospitality industry stagnated from July 2020 to August 2020 and January 2021.If the death toll rises as shown in Figure 1, then
As far as we know, all of this is happening in the context of slowing growth (these indicators only last until June).
image 3: Florida Coincidence Index (black), real GDP (purple) and non-agricultural employment (cyan) are all logarithms, 2019Q4=0. The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray. Synchronize the quarterly data of the index, and convert employment from monthly to quarterly averages. Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve, BEA, BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.
