For the first time in more than 500 days, the lineup appeared on the border bridge connecting Canada and the United States.
After easing border restrictions on vaccinated Americans on Monday morning, travelers and permanent residents from the United States are queuing to enter Canada Coronavirus disease.
However, with the delta variant cases and the return of the virus sweeping the two countries, is now the best time to reopen?
Some experts say that the answer is not as simple as “yes” or “no.”
“It’s like nailing jelly to the wall,” Dr. Julia Zarb, a professor at the Dalarana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, told Global News.
“Every time you solve one aspect of it, other aspects will appear.”
With the relaxation of border rules, Canada welcomes the return of fully vaccinated Americans
A large amount of new information and large amounts of data help public health officials track, trace and predict the spread of COVID-19. Zarb said there are too many variables to consider to determine whether reopening the border is right or wrong.
“We opened up the border, but we can’t really predict the number of people who will come. We can’t predict this kind of behavior,” she said, for example.
She said: “The continuing challenge facing COVID is that we must quickly translate this evidence and understanding into policies and applications.”
“Before COVID, our system was not built for situational awareness. It could be calibrated and re-strategic. It considers all these points more like a strategic and tactical evaluation on the battlefield. This is how we must behave now.”
Delta variants pose a threat
Hospitalization and COVID-19 cases in Canada are declining, but National data from the Public Health Agency of Canada warns that the Delta variant has the potential to disrupt some of these developments.
The data provided by the federal government to Global News confirms that the Delta change originally discovered in India accounts for 78.1% of all recorded COVID-19 cases in Canada.
But in the United States, the Delta variant caused a six-month high in the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, resulting in Cases surge in unvaccinated people in the U.S., Prompting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to reintroduce the guidelines, recommending that vaccinated people wear masks indoors.
According to statistics from Reuters on public health data, nationwide, COVID-19 cases averaged 100,000 for three consecutive days, an increase of 35% over the past week. Last week, the number of hospitalizations in the United States increased by 40%, and the number of deaths increased by 18%.
This may pose a huge health risk to Canadian citizens and inbound travelers.
In terms of vaccination, the situation in Canada is also different from that in the United States. Canada currently has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. The latest government data says More than 68% of Canadians 12 years and older were fully vaccinated, and 81.13% had at least one dose.
Kann said these numbers are “not as high as imagined” — “more than 90% of people will be very satisfied” — but they continue to climb.
The COVID-19 situation in Canada improves, but the Delta variant threatens the fall and winter
at the same time, The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says Less than 50% of Americans are fully vaccinated, and 58.2% are partially vaccinated.
Zarb said Canada has all the tools to effectively track and trace possible cases, hospitalizations and deaths. However, predicting how COVID-19 variants will behave after more people cross the border will be difficult because little is known about these strains.
Dr. Omar Khan, Professor of Biomedical Engineering at the University of Toronto, said: “For Delta, this now increases our chances of transmitting the virus to people who have not been vaccinated.”
There is growing evidence that Delta variants can infect fully vaccinated people at a higher rate than previous versions, Although those who are infected are unlikely to have severe symptoms that require hospitalization. But Khan said that the real problem lies in people who have not been vaccinated or partially vaccinated, because they are exposed to more possible carriers and they will face a higher risk.
“People still get sick. They may not have serious illnesses or enter the intensive care unit, but technically, they can test positive,” Khan said.
“So we will see a surge in positive cases. We are seeing it now. But if you look at the number of ICUs and hospitalizations, we want to make sure that these numbers are kept at a very low level.”
He suggested that public health officials re-evaluate border restrictions based on whether the Canadian intensive care unit rate has increased, to see if they are consistent with people who have been vaccinated, partially vaccinated, or not vaccinated.
High-risk children
Reopening the Canadian border to U.S. tourists may also put children at risk.
Dr. Stephen Hoption Cann, a clinical professor at the School of Population and Public Health at the University of British Columbia, said that children 12 years and younger—especially toddlers—are at greater risk of infection than adults because they are not yet eligible for vaccination. vaccine.
Cann said that vaccination will not stop the spread, which may expose children inadvertently or make them the main carriers of the virus.
Khan said that this situation may be magnified as the children return to school.
“When you increase the total number of exposed students, the absolute number of cases will rise, which will be a problem,” he said.
Khan said that regardless of whether it is the right time to reopen the border, the federal government should “absolutely” track the number of hospitalizations and testing in order to properly reassess travel restrictions.
But Kann pointed out that the timing of reopening the Canadian border may never be “right.”
The question is, when do you want to test this? He said. “Autumn, when the children go back to school, go to college-is this the right time?” “
-Documents by Amanda Connolly from Reuters and Global News
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