If accommodation and food service wages change in October in the same way as the overall leisure and hotel service wages co-change, then for various price indices, the answer is yes.
figure 1: The average hourly earnings of production and non-supervised workers in the accommodation and food service industries, in US dollars per hour, according to CPI (black), chain CPI, seasonally adjusted (blue-green), and CPI wage earners and clerical staff (Red) Reduce to 2020. NBER-defined recession dates are shaded in gray from peak to trough. Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by X-12/X-11 ARIMA. Using the logarithmic first-order difference specification, the October wage observations are inferred from the average wages for leisure and hotel services in 2021. Source: BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.
Therefore, even if the actual CPI exceeds the immediate forecast CPI (as described in this article), the actual wages of these workers still rise.
(Narrator: Is there a standard error in the estimate of average wages? Technical Description Regarding the average hourly income series, it is stated: “The average hourly income estimate is obtained by dividing the estimated industry wage by the corresponding paid time.” In other words, the average hourly wage is no Calculate by surveying some employees to obtain their hourly income, and then averaging all observed hourly income. Therefore, there is no standard error that people expect. )
