As mentioned earlier, the surge in demand for goods is part of the reason for shortages and increased price pressures. This is another illustration.
figure 1: Entry TEU, Port of Long Beach (dark blue), 12-month central moving average (sky blue) and 2009M07-20M01 trend (red). NBER-defined recession date peak-trough shaded in gray. TEU = 20 foot equivalent unit. source: Port of Long Beach, NBER and author’s calculations.
Inbound traffic is higher than the trend, as measured by at least a 12-month moving average. This is consistent with the view that increased demand for goods is driving some of the logistics issues currently being experienced.
An interesting aspect of the series is that it started to decline sharply even before the pandemic hit. This, in turn, is consistent with import tariffs or slower growth. On the other hand, outbound traffic has been out of fashion for many years.
figure 2: Outbound TEU, Port of Long Beach (dark blue), 12-month central moving average (sky blue) and 2009M07-16M12 trend (red). NBER-defined recession date peak-trough shaded in gray. TEU = 20-foot equivalent unit. source: Port of Long Beach, NBER and author’s calculations.
