Driven by exports, monthly GDP grew by 1.5% month-on-month. In addition to the current expectations for the employment data this Friday, we have the following pictures.
figure 1: Non-agricultural employment (dark blue), Bloomberg’s consensus on non-agricultural employment (blue +), industrial production (red), excluding personal income transferred in 2012 (green), manufacturing and trade sales in US dollars in 2012 ( Black), Ch.2012$ consumption (light blue) and Ch.2012$ monthly GDP (pink), all logarithms are normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defines the date of the recession, from peak to trough, in shades of gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, calculated by FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (released 12/1/2021), NBER and author.
We have now performed October observations on 5 of the 6 tracking indicators. This picture shows that by October, economic activity began to accelerate. However, all this data predates the information about omicron variants (even the Michigan sentiment index discussed in this article) postal).
