With the release of personal income and consumption, we have some final data that will be received this year (although the data for December will still be released in January). The following are some of the key indicators followed by NBER BCDC.
figure 1: Non-agricultural employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), excluding personal income transferred in 2012 (green), manufacturing and trade sales in 2012 (black), consumption in 2012 (light blue), and Ch .2012$ monthly GDP (pink), all logarithms are normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defines the date of the recession, from peak to trough, in shades of gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, calculated by FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (released 12/1/2021), NBER and author.
Paper currency consumption was flat in November (some shifted to the service industry); the service industry rose 0.5% month-on-month, durable goods fell 1%, and non-durable goods fell 0.6%. I expect service consumption in December to be impacted, but we can only get preliminary signs from high-frequency indicators. Personal income growth has also stagnated.
As of today, GDPNow has grown by 7.2% in the fourth quarter (SAAR), while IHS Markit has grown by 7.1%. Therefore, for the time being, the signs point to a strong year-end performance.
