November’s monthly GDP is here; the next important indicator is Friday’s December non-agricultural employment data. The following are some of the key indicators followed by NBER BCDC.
figure 1: Non-agricultural employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), excluding personal income transferred in 2012 (green), manufacturing and trade sales in 2012 (black), consumption in 2012 (light blue), and Ch .2012$ monthly GDP (pink), all logarithms are normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defines the date of the recession, from peak to trough, in shades of gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, calculated by FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (released on 1/3/2022), NBER and the author.
The monthly GDP decline as measured by IHS-Markit. Judging from today’s release:
In November, the monthly rate of GDP fell by 0.8%, which is about one-half of the change
It increased by 1.6% in October. … The drop in November is mainly due to
Because the commodity deficit widened sharply.There has also been a decline
In terms of non-agricultural inventory investment.
One hint that will appear in the employment report is a blow to employment in the leisure and hospitality industries.As Pavel Skripchinski It is pointed out that compared with the level of 2019, the number of people seated in December has declined, so strong growth in sector employment is unlikely.
source: Pavel Skripchinski
