Economists’ expectations rose, while household indicators traded sideways.
figure 1: CPI YoY Inflation (black), Median Expectations from Professional Forecasters Survey (Blue+), Median Expectations from Michigan Consumer Survey (Preliminary) (Red), Median NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (Light Green) , forecast from the Cleveland Fed (pink), average from the Coibion-Gorodnichenko Corporate Expectations Survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed and Kobe and Gorodnichenko.
As a reminder – with all expectations for y/y inflation rising – consumer/household based expectations are higher than economists and other forecasters are expecting, and (as discussed here), with an upward bias. Household expectations are now about two-and-a-half percentage points above economists’ expectations.
