from FuGuo bank today:
resource: Wells Fargo, March 1, 2022. Inflation compared to the same period last year.
from FuGuo bank (McKenna/Kennenbroek), no full-blown financial crisis and sovereign default:
… We believe the Russian economy will enter a recession this year and may follow a similar pattern to 2014-2016 When sanctions related to the invasion of Crimea were imposed and oil prices plummeted. On the inflation front, Russia’s CPI has risen, with January inflation figures showing prices rising nearly 9% year-on-year. In 2015, the depreciation of the ruble caused inflation to rise by 17% year-on-year. In our view, inflation could soar above 2015 levels this year.The rapid devaluation of the ruble, combined with local price pressures already widespread before the conflict, should mean that Inflation in Russia could reach 18.5% by the end of 2022. Tighter monetary policy and a stable ruble should keep Russia’s CPI on a downward trajectory in 2023 and converge towards the CBR’s 4% target in 2024. We believe the CBR policy rate will remain at 20% for the next few quarters, and Only before inflation peaks will CBR policymakers start lowering interest rates. in some meaning, We expect a policy rate cut at the CBR’s October 2022 meeting and further cuts in 2023 and 2024 as inflation softens
