IHS-Markit has just released its monthly GDP forecast for January, which is up 0% month-on-month. The Bloomberg consensus for February nonfarm payrolls fell to 400,000 from 450,000 on Feb. 25.
figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for February NFP (blue+), industrial production (red), 2012 dollars excluding transferred personal income (green), manufacturing and 2012 dollars Trade sales (black), consumption of Ch.2012$ (light blue) and monthly GDP of Ch.2012$ (pink), all normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defines recession dates, peaks and valleys, shades of gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (published March 1, 2022), NBER, and author’s calculations.
From IHS Markit today:
Monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in January, following a similar reading in December. Behind the flat January figures were strong headwinds, including a sharp rise in domestic final sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures) and a drop in nonfarm inventories
investment and net exports. …
IHS Markit forecast SAAR growth of 1% sequentially, Goldman Sachs tracking estimates of 1.5%. 3/1 (today) released by GDPNow indicates 0% growth in the first quarter,
