Australia will hold a federal election on May 21, 2022, and the current Conservative government is in poor shape, while the intervention of the French president has helped the opposition Labour Party. Emmanuel Macron’s frank calling of Australia’s prime minister a liar has further eroded his already shattered image as Australia’s most dishonest politician. I want the Conservatives to be ripped off, but I say this and I know it means Labour will take power and continue their embarrassing progressive camouflage while preaching mainstream economics that has damaged what many Labour politicians claim to represent. Really bad situation. We are not yet in a position where the traditional Conservatives and Labour are challenged by new entrants to the field. The first round of the 2022 French presidential election was held over the weekend with a very interesting result, which undoubtedly showed that France’s traditional political voice is dead – something we can only hope for in this country.
Imagine that the traditional conservative party – the Republican Party – gets less than 5% of the vote, while the traditional left party – the Socialist Party – doesn’t even get 2% of the vote.
inside – French presidential election 2017 – 20% of the vote for the Republicans (François Fillon as candidate) and 6.4% for the Socialists (with Benoit Harmon as candidate).
The table below shows the percentages of candidates and party leanings in the first round of voting.
Far-right voices got 31 percent of the vote, which is telling. Zemmour did not contest the 2017 election, so his vote represents a growing far-right voice in French politics and will make it interesting in the second round.
The chart below shows the percentage of votes cast in 2022 (bar graph) versus the results of the first round of the 2017 presidential election (vertical line).
Where there is no vertical line – no 2017 results apply. For example, Éric Zemmour is the new force in 2022.
You can find official results from the Ministère de l’Intérieur – 2022 Presidential Election – Place.
The first round of voting in 2017 attracted 77.8% of eligible voters, and the turnout in 2022 is 74.86%.
About 1,390,970 fewer voters will cast their ballots in 2022 than in 2017.
Preferences have changed significantly since the Russian invasion.
Polico.eu polls – France – 2022 presidential election – Made this great graphic – If you want a larger version with some alternative viewing options, visit their website.
Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have achieved very remarkable things since the Russian invasion.
– Le Pen went from 17% of the polls at the time to 24% of the actual vote.
– Mélenchon went from 12% in the poll at the time to 21.6% in the actual vote.
Zemmour’s share of the vote fell from 14 percent at the time of the Russian invasion to 7 percent of the actual vote, likely as voters turned to the more moderate but still far-right Le Pen.
The share of Valérie Pécresse representing the traditional ruling party, Les Républicains, fell from 15% at the time of the invasion to 4.7%, indicating a staggering drop in traditional voting patterns.
Also, under the candidacy of Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo, socialists have long been in the doldrums and show no signs of recovery.
The graph (besides the map) that really starts to tell the story is next, showing a breakdown of votes by age.
Here is the voting map for the first round.
Map from – France 24 – and shows the spatial divide in France.
Marine Le Pen dominates the north and northeast, while Emmanuel Macron is most popular elsewhere (west, southeast and south).
Jean-Luc Mélenchon has a strong presence in the northern suburbs of Paris and is several regional centers.
I’m still analysing the results, but here are some observations far from France (although Australia isn’t too far from New Caledonia!):
1. Emmanuel Macron wins first round on Over-65 backs, but his once unassailable lead over Marine Le Pen is gone, April 2022 The second round on the 10th got even more interesting.
2. This vote revealed a huge shift that is taking place in French politics (as far as I know). The traditionally dominant parties — the Republicans and the Socialists — are in a death spiral.
Both failed in various ways to provide a voice for the times and became corrupt, complacent establishments (right and left).
They have been in decline since the adoption of a common currency and the dysfunctional European Commission and its bullying policies have apparently resulted in a generation of disenfranchisement.
I trace this shift in the book — Eurozone dystopia: Massive groupthink and denial (Published May 2015) We analyzed it further – Reclaiming the State: A Progressive Vision for Sovereignty in a Post-Neoliberal World (Pluto Books, September 2017).
Traditional parties represent the ruling class in France.
People rejected them.
OK
3. Marine Le Pen is the most popular among prime-age voters between the ages of 35 and 64, and her heartland is the industrial north and south.
She reinvented the far right to a degree, but was still far right, ceding the fringes of madness to Éric Zemmour.
Her problem now is that because of the so-called- sanitary rope – This refers to the rejection of extremist views by the voting population.
In the context of French politics, this rejection has traditionally cost Marine Le Pen’s team any chance of major success.
Another aspect of this rejection was Jean-Luc Mélenchon, now the face of the French left, who received 7,605,225 votes (nearly 22%).
In a post-vote news conference, party spokesman Alexis Corbiere said (source):
…obviously, at no point did the National Front option come up…it’s about our political DNA. The National Front should not have voted one, nor one.
(It is clear that the National Front has no choice. This is our political DNA. The National Front should not vote one, not one).
That makes it easier for Macron, unless a majority of the left abstain.
Then Zemour’s vote threatened Macron, who pledged to back Marine Le Pen in the second round.
4. The demise of traditional parties has created a new dichotomy – pro-EU Macron and anti-EU nationalist Marine Le Pen.
In fact, the vote against the EU also included Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Nicolas Dupont-Agnan and Eric Zemour among others.
There are now more voters sympathetic to their position in Europe than to strong voices in Europe.
5. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, now clearly the dominant voice on the left, has attracted a lot of support from French youth and 25-34 year olds, which I think is a very good sign.
Macron’s power base is quickly dying, and the fact that young voters are drawn to leftist agendas should give progressives a lot of hope in France and beyond.
He is also in trouble advising his base of support what to do in the second-round runoff because he also doesn’t want to support the center-right Macron.
It’s hard to know how his votes will be divided between Macron and Le Pen, or lost by abstention, even though polls predict 53 percent will vote for Macron.
But in the French media, I read that about 50% would abstain, which still leaves a large number of voters likely to swing between Macron and Le Pen.
The fact that Jean-Luc Melenchon is out could be an advantage for Macron, given the “cordon”. If he had to face left-wing candidates, things could be very interesting, as Le Pen’s votes would leak to Jean-Luc Mélenchon more than otherwise.
The good news for the polls is that far-right frenzied candidate Zemur has lost out after being seen as a contender.
French voters are somewhat mature.
in conclusion
I guess Macron will win on April 10th.
But what interests me most is that Jean-Luc Mélenchon won the votes of young French voters, while the youngest group – those aged 18-24 – rejected Le Pen and Zemour .
If this trend continues, and over time, France could have a progressive, anti-EU left-wing future.
While Macron is likely to win overall in 2022, that’s something to be happy about.
Enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2022 William Mitchell. all rights reserved.
