GDP and current GDP (average of GDP and GDI):
figure 1: GDP (black), Gross Domestic Product (tan), IHS-Markit Tracker (red triangle), GDPNow (green square), Professional Forecaster Survey Median (turquoise), all in billions. 2012 $, SAAR. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (May), IHS-Markit (6/24), Atlanta Fed (6/27), and author’s calculations.
Both IHS-Markit and the Atlanta Fed are in the (0.9%, 0.3% SAAR) survey of professional forecasters, using survey responses from late April. On the other hand, the latest assessment of GDPNow shows positive growth rather than zero growth. The St. Louis Fed’s nowcast (6/24) based on economic news expects growth of 3.7%.
Note that GDO was flat in Q1 2022 (see Furman (2016) for discussion).
GDPNow and tracking forecasts are based on higher frequency data that appears prior to the relevant quarterly advance release. The fact that they are in the positive range suggests that the first print of Q2 GDP will not be negative. However, as with all such macro data, subsequent revisions are likely to alter the contours of the time series, explaining why the NBER BCDC typically waits so long to identify troughs (or peaks, for that matter).
