No, as of 2020M03. Since 2021M03, the title is No and the core is Yes (8% level).
figure 1: USD-Eurozone monthly/monthly annualized aggregate divergence (blue), core divergence (red). CPI in the US, HICP in the Eurozone. HICP was seasonally adjusted using the X-13 log transformation. Inflation calculated using log difference. The NBER uses shades of grey to define the peak and trough dates of the recession. Sources: BLS, EuroStat, via FRED, and author’s calculations.
During 2021M03-22M05, US core inflation accelerated by 2.4 percentage points relative to the euro area. If the U.S. pandemic begins in January 2020, the relative acceleration is only 0.7 percentage points.
This approach – uses the difference in inflation differences (see regression specification here) — consistent with the inflation rate or inflation differential being I(0).
