Atlanta Fed Based on advanced international data and annual benchmark GDP figures, the now-forward forecast for the third quarter has been revised up from 0.3%:
If the forecast for the third quarter is 2.4%, the picture of the business cycle indicator looks like this:
figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus on NFP as of September 30 (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding 2012 2012 dollar transfers (green ), manufacturing and trade sales in 2012 (black), consumption in 2012 (light blue), monthly GDP in 2012 (pink), official GDP observations for the third quarter implied by GDNowcast 9/30 (blue) color bars), all logs are normalized to 2021M11=0. The lilac shading indicates dates associated with the H1 hypothetical recession. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (published September 1, 2022), Atlanta Fed (Accessed 9/30) and author’s calculations.
