Even if the ONS releases the figure, it will be part of the mystery.Now it’s more of a mystery since the release postponed indefinitely (Trade data is also a mystery…)
Here are GDP, Bloomberg Consensus and IMF reports for October 2022 world economic outlook forecast.
figure 1: China GDP (black), Bloomberg Consensus as of October 17 (sky blue squares) and IMF October 2022 World Economic Outlook forecast (red squares), CNY million 2020, quarterly interest rates. ECRI peak-trough recession dates are shaded in gray. resource: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, Bloomberg (17 October 2022)and IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022, ECRI and author’s calculations.
The Bloomberg consensus is for a 3.3% rebound in the third quarter. The recently released IMF WEO forecast points to 0.2% growth in Q4/Q4 2022, with production falling in 2023. The forecast for 2022 was unchanged from July but down 0.4 percentage points from April. Both the third-quarter consensus and the IMF WEO forecast were at odds with the government’s 5.5% growth target.
Regardless, we’re more certain than ever about what’s going on with China’s GDP.Although recently, China’s GDP appears to be tracking alternative business cycle frequency estimators such as the Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel CCAT (see here postal), the delay is troubling, especially since China accounts for about 18% of world output (14% in the euro area and 25% in the US at current exchange rates). (Note that this is a different issue than trend growth, as in Recent paper by Martinez (JPE, 2022) [ungated version] on how GDP statistics exaggerate the growth of dictatorships).
While China’s share of (estimated) world nominal GDP in 2022 is lower than that of the US, its contribution to real growth that deviates from trend forecasts is as large as the US.
resource: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (October 2022), Figures 1-16.
So what is the growth of economic activity in China? Until we get a report, we have to settle for proxy measures. McKenna in Wells Fargo Economics (Oct. 14) This heat map of China’s economy is provided for reference.
resource: Wells Fargo Economics (October 14, 2022).
