After a few days of delay, the National Bureau of Statistics released third-quarter GDP at 3.9% yoy and q/q (not annualized), compared to Bloomberg consensus of 3.4% and 3.5% (so end the suspense). Here is the picture, using the index.
figure 1: China real GDP index, based on cumulative seasonally adjusted q/q growth rates (black), and Bloomberg consensus based on q/q growth rates (sky blue squares) to log 2019Q=0. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.
Now, as mentioned before postal, the seasonally adjusted q/q figures reported by the NBS are a bit difficult to replicate. In Figure 2, I show (normalized to Q1 2019 = 0) the log index and reported real GDP (not seasonally adjusted), using (multiplicative) moving averages or Census X-13 (performed in EViews ) are seasonally adjusted.
figure 2: China real GDP index, based on cumulative seasonally adjusted q/q growth rates (black), and Bloomberg consensus based on q/q growth rates (sky blue squares), the authors use a multiplicative moving average (tan) seasonally adjusted Real GDP, and using X-13 and log transforms (blue), and IMF WEO implied levels (red squares), all in log 2019Q=0. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Bloomberg, IMF WEO (October 2022) and author calculations.
Since the implied GDP level for Q4 2021 is the same regardless of the cumulative growth rate (black) or the X-13 adjusted GDP (blue) index, it is clear that using my adjusted series, the fourth Faster quarterly growth is necessary to meet the IMF’s forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022.
