What assumptions were made?
reader anonymous Hubbert asserted that “… no indication of when peak oil production will be reached under current technology.”However, on page 24 of the original Hubbard (1956) In the documentation, we find the following paragraph:
Another surprise is worth commenting on. With current production technologies, only about one-third of all oil in the ground is being extracted. The reserve figures quoted are for oil that can be extracted by existing technology. However, secondary oil recovery technology is gradually improving in order to eventually extract a slightly larger but still unknown portion of underground oil. However, due to the slowness of the secondary recovery process, it seems unlikely that any improvements that can be made in the next 10 to 15 years will have any significant impact on the climax date. A more likely effect of increasing the recovery rate relative to the rates shown in Figure 21 is to decrease the rate of descent after reaching the peak. [emphasis added – MDC]
Here is Figure 21:
So I’d say that Hubbert did base his predictions on available technology. He also basically kept those hypothetical technologies in a 10 to 15 year window (so, to about 1966 to 1971).
