Growth has generally fallen unexpectedly during this period.
This is GDP in constant 2015 RMB, and IMF world economic outlook October forecast.
figure 1: China GDP WEO October 2022 (black), October 2022 forecast (gray blue), October 2021 forecast (red), October 2019 forecast (sky blue), October 2014 forecast (pink), Goldman Sachs December 22, 2022 forecast (orange), all in billions of 2015CNY, on a logarithmic scale. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October, various issues), Goldman Sachs 12/22/2022.
From a different perspective, I show real GDP growth (in log difference) since 1991 (shown in the report, in black), and the corresponding forecast world economic outlook predict.
figure 2: October 2022 China GDP YoY Growth WEO (black), October 2022 forecast (gray blue), October 2021 forecast (red), October 2019 forecast (sky blue), October 2014 forecast Monthly forecast (pink), Goldman Sachs forecast for December 22, 2022 (orange), all in 2015 RMB 1 billion, logarithmic scale. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database (October, various issues), Goldman Sachs 12/22/2022.
The World Bank just cut its year-on-year growth rate for 2022 to 2.7%, Goldman Sachs to 2.6%, and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecast in November was 3.2%.
If you don’t think 3.2% and 10% (or the 5.5% target) in 2010 isn’t a “hitting the wall”, I don’t know what is.
in my opinion, this is not a good thing. A prosperous global economy needs a growing Chinese economy – so no schadenfreude here (although it would be more appropriate to write no schadenfreude).
