California’s atmospheric rivers warn of future climate catastrophe
The following is an excerpt from a maintain what blog post.
With another powerful West Coast atmospheric river making landfall and grabbing headlines, it’s worth reiterating that Californians aren’t ready for the worst that the region’s whiplash climate could throw at them.
Recently one after another atmospheric river event is the shadow of the possible – indeed the inevitable.
Over the next 7 days, several waves of energy will create atmospheric river conditions in the west. WPC’s QPF product shows that 5+ inches of rain is common in a 7-day period! With each impending event, the highly saturated soil raises concerns about flash flooding in the region. pic.twitter.com/t2FbhOhWGd
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) January 4, 2023
For the latest warnings for current hurricane systems, follow Relevant National Weather Service output And follow extreme weather scientists such as Daniel Swain (@weather_west). NOAA has a Valuable Atmospheric River Forecast Site,and also.
Let’s talk about “atmospheric river” Appeared in the research literature in 1998 But these phenomena are a normal part of weather systems in many oceanic regions.
according to A comprehensive 2013 report, these systems are responsible for 90% of the global atmospheric water transport! While most headlines portray these systems as threats, for places like California, they’re also an important factor in breaking drought and restoring snowpack.
In early 2023, several atmospheric rivers hit California, flooding a walnut orchard near the Sacramento River. photo: Frank Schulenburg through creative sharing
There is no evidence yet that global warming has an effect on these systems, but climate models do project Atmospheric river rainfall intensifies as warming continues. Another 2022 studyreports a team led by Kristen Shields of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, finding that “geoengineering leads to fewer extreme rainfall events and fewer rainfall events.”
Such research is important, but the climate change debate risks distracting attention from the core reality that past patterns of these extreme events, combined with social expansion in flood-prone regions, are bound to have significant effects.
Even California’s incredible catastrophic flood in the winter of 1861-2, which turned the Central Valley into a freshwater sea, pales in comparison US Geological Survey says Study of past rainfall events finds: “The geological record shows Over the last 1,800 years, California has had 6 megastorms worse than 1861-1862, there is no reason to believe that similar incidents will not happen again. “
California has been growing in places like the Central Valley and the Delta. Parts of the delta are below sea level because it has been sinking. The Central Valley has also been sinking due to pumping of groundwater, in some places 30 feet deeper than it was in 1861. Now it’s even worse — over 6 million people live in the Central Valley alone.
This bears repeating. Some parts of the Central Valley are 30 feet deeper than they were in 1861.
