Each year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts the state of the federal budget, specifically the state of the government debt and the annual deficit. Note that these should not be considered forecasts, as CBO’s forecasts are designed to measure what will happen over the next 10 years, assuming no laws change (which is of course unrealistic). despite this,Hanno Lustig Examines U.S. Federal Debt and Deficit in Relationship to CBO Forecasts.
Regarding the debt-to-GDP ratio, the CBO projected that the debt was higher than it actually was from about 1985 to 2000. Since 2000, however, debt projections have actually been much lower than expected.
The surplus figures are relatively similar each year. From 1985 to 2000, actual surpluses were higher than CBO forecasts. However, after 2000, the real government surplus was much lower than the CBO project. The downward spike in 2020 is of course the COVID stimulus money, but even without that spike, the trend is pretty consistent.
