International Monetary Fund world economic outlook January update out, with some small upward revisions to the 2023 world output growth forecast, with larger forecasts for the US and China.
figure 1: Reported GDP (black), IMF WEO update (sky blue triangles), WSJ January survey average (teal) and GDPNow as of 1/27 (red squares), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2022Q4 advance, IMF World Economic Outlook January UpdateThe Wall Street Journal survey in January, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaand the author’s calculations.
The IMF’s forecast for US GDP is more optimistic than that of Wall Street economists (as represented in the January Wall Street Journal survey). Since only Q4/Q4 projected growth rates are reported, it is difficult to know if the IMF staff is forecasting a recession (especially if using the standard NBER criterion based on multiple series, rather than the rule based on 2Q GDP) . The IMF did say it does not expect a global recession, although growth will certainly be below average.
