Meet the next generation of African climate forecasters
This story is adapted from a originally published Through the Accelerated CGIAR Climate Research Impact on Africa (AICCRA).
East Africa is experiencing its worst drought in decades, while on the other side of the continent, Nigeria, Cameroon and other West African countries face devastating floods that have displaced more than a million people. The need for accurate and actionable predictions to protect life and property has never been greater.
Forecasters from 10 National Meteorological Services in East and Southern Africa (left) and seven in West Africa (right) were trained with their Regional Climate Centers to produce the best available seasonal forecasts for their countries.
Recognizing this, the Columbia Climate Institute’s International Institute for Climate and Society and its partners recently organized two regional-scale trainings on the use of state-of-the-art technology seasonal forecast A system called “NextGen”, which has been a dozen countries in Central and South America.
These trainings—one in Zanzibar, Tanzania, and one in Lomé, Togo—are part of a key push to accelerate the impact of CGIAR climate research in Africa (ACRA) project to improve access to climate information services and climate-smart agriculture for millions of small farmers in Africa. They bring together staff from National Meteorological Services of 17 countries and work at two regional climate centres: the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) in East Africa, and the Regional Center for Training and Applications in Agrometeorology and Operational Hydrology in West Africa (Agmeet).
As a result, both ICPAC and Agrhymet have started using NextGen-based forecasts in their operations. This is a significant development because the climate forecasts produced by these regional centers are incorporated by national weather services into their own forecasting processes. Such results are directly in line with AICCRA’s goal of giving farmers access to tailored advisory services based on high-quality climate information so they can predict climate-related events and take preventive measures to protect their livelihoods and communities.
Policymakers long-term need for objective climate forecasts
Based on more than 25 years of IRI research, the “NextGen” forecasting system helps countries rapidly generate high-resolution, location-specific forecasts that can be easily communicated to agricultural decision makers and planners (Next Generation Fact Sheet). Much of agriculture in East and West Africa is still rain-fed, meaning farmers have little or no access to irrigation when there is little or no rain. This makes reliable and understandable weather and climate forecasts critical to the lives and livelihoods of the millions of people who depend on the rainy season for food, income and the well-being of their families.
“Seasonal forecasting is used by individuals, municipalities, and even whole governments, especially to manage risk. Will it flood? Will our agriculture get enough rain? How will we do it?” [to manage this risk]? — Francisca Martey, Deputy Director General, Ghana Meteorological Service, one of the trainees in Lomé, Togo
when time is of the essence
By the end of 2022, Nigeria will experience devastating floods, affecting more than 90% of the country and displacing more than 1.4 million people.
“NextGen allows you to combine forecasts very quickly and easily and also assess their skill very easily. With it, we can make better forecasts,” said Bello Ahmed of the Nigerian Meteorological Service, who participated in the training in Lome. “It’s important to have good information and early warning so we can act in advance [extreme flooding] coming. “
The time-saving aspect of NextGen has another benefit for forecasters like Ahmed. They have more time to focus on research and other activities that are critical to improving Nigeria’s long-term forecasting capabilities.
communication is key
Two AICCRA trainings highlighted the relevance of forecasting to decision making and the importance of various communication channels, methods and formats to ensure this.
In the process, training organizers emphasized the role of National Weather Services in supporting and regulating the use of forecasts—not just their generation—and even helped change the mindset of some weather service staff.
Participants learned about a new way to communicate and visualize predictions using NextGen. Historically, seasonal forecasts have shown the likelihood of a location receiving “above normal” or “below normal” rainfall. But these categories are often too vague to inform any meaningful agricultural planning. NextGen forecasts provide the option to show the likelihood of “exceeding” or “not exceeding” a certain amount of rainfall. This format is a game changer in the field of agriculture.
For example, by communicating forecasts in this way, people can decide which crop varieties to use next season based on their water needs. Decisions like this can make the difference between food security and insecurity.
Carrying Forward: Peer Learning and South-South Cooperation
One of the goals of the training activities is to create a strong network within the African meteorological community to help drive the production of high-quality climate information and services.
Conducting each training as a region-wide event allows for peer-to-peer exchange, creating a community of practice that will hopefully sustain, develop and even expand the capabilities and relationships established in Lomé and Zanzibar.
“I appreciate that IRI and AICCRA are trying to create a community around seasonal forecasting that will allow us to do a lot of things. The community created around this tool will really allow it to thrive. If I see a lot of people leading around this table, I won’t be surprised [new trainings] on this continent. I really see it as ours now. “— nice ahmed
“A regional approach to training is best because when you have people with different levels of understanding, it’s a great opportunity for networking and learning,” said ICPAC’s Eunice Koech. “If you have a lower-level person, he or she can interact with a higher-level person without feeling shy. It’s a freeing environment and the best way for people to learn.”
There was an additional dimension to the success of the trainings: they fostered the local ownership and intercontinental collaboration necessary to advance improved seasonal forecasting both within and outside the countries targeted for training.
These exchanges are now continuing through the formation of a “South-South” community of practice supported by digital resources and communication channels within and between East and West Africa.
