-2.1% YoY in 2022.
exist “Russia’s economic contraction last year eased by government spending”Bofit’s comment on y/y numbers:
Looking at gross domestic product by end use, private consumption contracted 1.8% last year, while public consumption rose 2.8%. The contraction in private consumption reflected a decline in real income (-1% y/y). On the other hand, contraction in retail sales (-6.7%) suggested that the decline should have been more pronounced. We expect some of the confusion to be resolved with the release of Q4 2022 data. Nominal growth in public spending last year (over 20%, according to preliminary data) was unusually high. This means that public spending has increased by almost 10% in real terms. Federal budget spending rose 25% year-on-year. Much of the increase in government sector spending occurred in public consumption and public investment.
In other words, Russia’s GDP would have fallen even more had government spending not increased significantly.
I do wonder about the reliability of the Rosstat numbers (reading between the lines, I suspect Bofit might as well).
Rosstat’s preliminary estimate of end-use GDP is difficult to interpret. Figures for total exports and imports were not released, and figures extrapolated from elsewhere suggest that net exports were around zero last year. This estimate is at odds with available information on the value of foreign trade. Preliminary balance of payments data showed that the value of imports contracted by 9% year-on-year, while the value of exports increased by 14%. According to mirror statistics from Russia’s main trading partners, the value of Russian goods imports fell by 23% last year, while the value of goods exports rose by 23%.
The chart below shows some competing forecasts (OECD from November, World Bank from early January, IMF from late January).
source: european council.
As of today, the IMF is closest, although that could change as data revisions arrive.
