I’m tired of getting regular emails reminding me of new Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecasts or monthly economic updates (the latest just came out, here).In addition, DoR has significantly expanded its Interactive Data Visualization here. But after some thought, I really have to say that openness has changed dramatically since Governor Walker stepped down.
The way economic data is disseminated today stands in stark contrast to the previous administration. Ecobrowser readers will remember June 2016in response to my inquiry to the Wisconsin Department of Revenue for quarterly Wisconsin Economic OutlookI received this very polite response:
[T]The report has become increasingly irregular and we have ceased publishing the outlook based on the resources involved in producing it. We may still publish special reports from time to time, please pay attention to our website at any time in the future.
I checked for four years to no avail.so like Brownback regime, halt release of Kansas advisory board report because data doesn’t cooperateAfterwards, the Walker regime stopped issuing reports, as Wisconsin was embarrassingly behind the January 2015 promise of 250,000 new private jobs that then-Governor Walker had just recommitted. August 2013.
figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted, 000 (red), up 250,000 through January 2015 (light gray), trending up 250,000 through January 2015 (dark gray). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depth WD, the author’s calculation. Originally from a September 2018 post.
Four years after this very polite reply, the new outlook forecast is published again.The first release (May 2020) is here.The new government also provided a report on the evolution of activity in the Metropolitan Statistical Area (latest here).
Here are the two latest pictures of GDP and employment relative to the May outlook (released in June):
figure 2: June 30 Wisconsin GDP (blue), May economic outlook forecast (sky blue squares) and forecast based on first difference of US GDP over the same period, lagged Wisconsin GDP (see Discussion), and 6/30 GDPNow Live predict.Source: BEA, and Wisconsin Economic Outlook (possible) and the authors’ calculations.
figure 2: Employment in Wisconsin (blue), forecast from the May Economic Outlook forecast (sky blue squares).Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Wisconsin Economic Outlook (possible) and the authors’ calculations.
In other words, when theorists come in, they say: “the first thing we do, let’s kill all the statisticians/economists/data experts”.
