Both headline and core were 0.2% MoM, compared with a Bloomberg consensus of 0.3%. Here is a picture of m/m, y/y and instant (Eeckhout 2023, T=12, a=4).
figure 1: Year-on-year headline CPI inflation (black), month-on-month inflation (light blue) and instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) (red). Recession peak-to-trough dates as defined by NBER are grayed out. Sources: BLS, NBER, and authors’ calculations.
figure 2: Core CPI inflation YoY (black), MoM (light blue) and instantaneous (T=12, a=4) (red). Recession peak-to-trough dates as defined by NBER are grayed out. Sources: BLS, NBER, and authors’ calculations.
Therefore, the short-term trend is the same as the same period last year, which is the focus of discussion.trend by Eckhout (2023)The measure of instantaneous inflation is the same (downward). The core monthly rate annualized rate was 1.9%, while the instantaneous value was 4%.
For reference, below are the price indices at different levels.
image 3: CPI (black), core CPI (grey), PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (light blue) and HICP (red), all in log 2020M02=0. Recession peak-to-trough dates as defined by NBER are grayed out. Sources: BLS, BEA, FRED, NBER, and authors’ calculations.
