Industrial production unexpectedly fell (-0.5% vs. Bloomberg consensus 0% mom), as did manufacturing (-0.3% vs. 0% mom). Below is a picture of key indicators tracked by NBER BCDC, monthly GDP (SPGMI), and GDPNow (up 10bps in Q2 vs. 7/10).
figure 1: Non-farm employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2012 personal income excluding transfers (green), 2012 manufacturing and trade sales $ (black), 2012 consumption $ (light blue), and 2012 monthly GDP $ (pink), GDP (blue bars), 2023 Q2 GDPNow is 7/18, all log normalized to 2 021M11=0 . Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 Release 3 (via FRED), atlanta fed (7/18), S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigeria Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (7/3/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
As of today, Q2 GDPNow is at 2.4% SAAR. GS is 2.5%, while SPGMI is 1.7%.
Retail sales were broadly in consensus. The following is the time series of industrial production, manufacturing production and retail sales deflated by final demand/manufactured goods PPI, as shown in Figure 1.
figure 2: Industrial production (red, left log scale), manufacturing production (purple, left log scale), and food service retail sales deflated by PPI final demand manufactured goods, in millions of dollars in 1982 (green, right log scale), all seasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Reserve, Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics (all via FRED), and authors’ calculations.
