We live in an age where vast amounts of data are readily available. The U.S. government is unlikely to suppress data, such as median hourly wages, to provide an overly rosy view of the U.S. economy. It’s an unlikely conspiracy.
The following two charts show average real wages (from FRED’s AHETPI) and median real wages for all workers (from the Cleveland Fed Payroll Tracker), the first year-over-year change, and the second since December 2018. cumulative growth.
figure 1: Real average hourly earnings (blue), real median hourly earnings for all full-time workers (tan), and year-over-year growth for full-time workers (green). Recession peak-to-trough dates as defined by NBER are grayed out.Source: BLS via FRED (AHETPI, CPIAUCSL), median wages from atlanta fedNBER, and author’s calculations.
figure 2: Cumulative growth in real average hourly earnings (blue) and real median hourly earnings for all workers (tan) since Q2 2018. Recession peak-to-trough dates as defined by NBER are grayed out.Source: BLS via FRED (AHETPI, CPIAUCSL), median wages from atlanta fedNBER, and author’s calculations.
A casual look at Figures 1 and 2 reveals that real median wages have been rising in recent months hurry up higher than the actual average wage.
See previous attempts to explain available data to some particularly obtuse readers, here.
* Much attributed to Adlai Stevenson or Eleanor Roosevelt, or a variation on a Chinese proverb. Regarding the latter, I confess to never having heard my parents say anything like that.
