A new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health confirms that high-income countries’ continued pursuit of economic growth is inconsistent with the climate goals and equity demands of the Paris Agreement.
None of the high-income countries has achieved so-called “green growth”, that is, economic growth accompanied by reductions in emissions consistent with the Paris Agreement.
author of the book Is green growth happening? Green growth is actually out of reach for high-income countries, according to research by Jeffhem Vogel of the University of Leeds and Professor Jason Schickel of the Autonomous University of Barcelona.
decoupling
The findings challenge repeated claims by the media and politicians that economic growth in high-income countries can be “green,” and disprove claims that “green growth” has already occurred.
Historically, carbon dioxide emissions have been closely linked to economic activity, expressed as GDP, or gross domestic product. When GDP increases, so do emissions. In recent years, some high-income countries have achieved a certain degree of “decoupling”, increasing GDP while reducing emissions, a process known as “absolute decoupling”.
But not just any degree of decoupling, but sufficient decoupling, the researchers note, is needed to comply with the climate goals and equity principles of the Paris Agreement.
Countries need to reduce emissions not just at any rate, but fast enough to stay within their fair share of the “global carbon budget” by 1.5°C or at least “well below 2C”—that is, within its Population scale – the maximum fraction of CO2 that can still be emitted globally over time if we are to limit global warming to these levels.
The study identified 11 high-income countries that achieved “absolute decoupling” between 2013 and 2019: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
fair
But the analysis shows that the reductions these countries have achieved fall far short of what is needed to comply with the Paris Agreement.
At the pace achieved, it would take the 11 countries an average of more than 200 years to bring their emissions close to zero, and their collective emissions would be more than 27 times their fair share of the global carbon budget at 1.5°C.
Lead author Jefim Vogel, of the Leeds Institute for Sustainable Development, said: “There’s nothing green about this. It’s the root of climate breakdown and further climate injustice. Putting this inadequate mitigation Calling it “green growth” is highly misleading and is greenwashing.
“If ‘green growth’ is to be consistent with the climate goals and equity principles of the Paris Agreement, it is clear that high-income countries are not anywhere near ‘green growth’ and are highly unlikely to do so in the future.
