I don’t think a recession can be avoided, although increase confidence This will be the result.However, it yes Even when looking at the measures mentioned by Steve Kopitz (famous for the recession in the first half of 2022), it’s hard to find signs of a recession.
figure 1: Heavy truck sales (blue, left log scale), CPS civilian employment (pink, right log scale), vehicle miles traveled (tan, right log scale), author uses Census X13/X11 ARIMA for seasons Sexually adjusted oil consumption (light blue, right log scale), and author-supplied gasoline (green, right log scale), all 2021M11=0. Sources: Census, NHTSA, EIA via FRED, EIA STEO, and author’s calculations.
As discussed in other posts, VMT and oil-related measures are not very useful in predicting an NBER-defined recession [1] [2] [3]. I think as working from home becomes more common, these measures become less informative. Mr. Kopitz also noted that civilian employment (which most macroeconomists believe has a lower signal-to-noise ratio than nonfarm payrolls) is still rising.
Compared with November 2021, heavy-duty truck sales remained strong, although a far cry from the recent peak (down 7%).
Although Sam’s Rule indicator riseswhich (0.13) is still well below the triggering threshold (0.50).
I originally wanted to add spam sales, I saw some people mentioned this but couldn’t find the time series.
