It’s Wednesday, and while there’s a lot to write about, I’m prioritizing today the release of our latest research at the Center for Full Employment and Equity (CoffFEE). Post what we say— CofFEE Financial Resilience Barometer – Version 1.0 – is part of my collaborative research with Professor Scott Baum from Griffith University. We have been awarded funding from the Australian Research Council for the next three years of research to explore regional resilience in the face of economic shocks, particularly in the wake of the massive disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Today we publish the first results of this research. I was thinking about something else today, the usual Wednesday music section would feature a song by a well-known Palestinian singer.
CofFEE Financial Resilience Barometer – Version 1.0
Today we are releasing the results of the first phase of a three-year project funded by the Australian Research Council to examine regional recovery from economic shocks, particularly following the massive disruption caused by the pandemic force.
The Center for Full Employment and Equity at the University of Newcastle and the Urban Institute at Griffith University are working to develop the Financial Resilience Barometer (FRB) for small Australian regions.
FRB is a collaboration between me (at CofFEE) and Professor Scott Baum (Griffith University), a regular blogger here who has been collaborating and publishing with me for many years.
This part of the program initially sought to build what we call the “Financial Resilience Barometer,” an index designed to measure financial vulnerability.
Financial vulnerability results from a lack of financial and economic resources.
The former Reserve Bank governor has continually defended rising interest rates, claiming households have savings that will protect them from harm.
The problem is that for many Australian households they have little buffer and have been hit by rising cost of living pressures and rising interest rates.
They are among what we call a “severely financially vulnerable” group and are at risk of losing everything.
Measuring financial resilience at the community level also contributes to long-established research on the spatial distribution of socioeconomic disadvantage and inequality.
Understanding the links between geography or space and well-being, social exclusion, inequality or poverty has been part of the social science research field for decades.
At this stage of the project, we deployed a multidimensional statistical framework that considers four axes of financial resilience:
- Economic resources (savings, ability to meet costs, income, ability to raise funds in emergencies).
- Financial resources (access to banking services and insurance banking services).
- Financial knowledge and behavior (knowledge of financial services, proactive financial actions, confidence in using financial products).
- Social capital (social relationships, access to social support, access to community and government support).
FRB divides areas (near suburbs) into five categories based on their FRB Index score:
The novelty of this work is the integration of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census, Australian Taxation Office data and other survey data to calculate index scores for more than 2,000 areas in both metropolitan and rural/regional areas.
Across capital cities, a patchwork of financial resilience and vulnerability is evident, with urban results showing higher concentrations of these two extremes.
The resulting mapping shows distinct inner-city clusters of financial resilience and outer-suburban clusters of financial vulnerability.
The FRB recognizes that financial vulnerability is not only concentrated in disadvantaged communities but also characterizes other places.
The existence of extreme financial vulnerabilities in places not traditionally thought of as highly disadvantaged illustrates the pervasiveness of the problem.
This is the first output of the project.
We are now conducting spatial econometric analysis of the data to identify possible causal relationships, which will help us develop appropriate policy interventions.
front page- CofFEE Financial Resilience Barometer – Version 1.0 – Provides access to detailed geographical overviews and mapping tools to generate Cloropes maps for each Australian state and territory.
These maps provide a good overview of the geographical distribution of financial vulnerability across Australia.
Here’s an overview of the Melbourne metropolitan area:
Detailed profiles allow one to drill down to the “suburban” level to examine the reasons for specific index values and percentile rankings.
A technical report detailing the development and interpretation of our derived index is – Australia Financial Resilience Barometer: Australian Subnational Index – Available.
It includes an explanation of the methodology used to calculate the Financial Resilience Barometer, commentary and key policy recommendations.
As an application, we now examine the relationship between the FRB Index and voting patterns in last weekend’s Australian referendum, which rejected the inclusion of Aboriginal voices in the Australian constitution.
Preliminary logistic regression analysis of yes/no votes at the same spatial level as the FRB index shows:
1. Political loyalty doesn’t really drive the vote, except for Green voters who are most likely to vote yes. Voting patterns for the two main parties in federal elections are not a good predictor of how people will vote in referendums.
2. The FRB index variable is highly predictive – the more elastic it is, the more likely a yes vote will be.
One tentative hypothesis is that economically resilient households are better equipped to focus on higher-order issues, such as the rights of the poor or indigenous peoples.
However, those in areas of severe vulnerability are more likely to focus on financial survival rather than embracing higher-level concerns.
3. The low education variable is highly predictive and negative – so the higher the education level, the higher the probability of “yes”.
The opposition movement was characterized by a deluge of misinformation and lies about the consequences of voting yes.
For example, people were told that if the vote passed, the United Nations would take over Australia.
Polls show that many voters don’t really know what they’re voting for.
Polls also reveal huge gaps in people’s understanding of basic civic knowledge—how our government institutions work.
All of these things are affected by a person’s level of education.
In fact, the referendum proposal is simple and modest.
To think there is more to it than that reflects a basic lack of knowledge.
Regardless, we are looking at these issues and the program is funded for three years.
So I’ll no doubt tell you more about the results as they come in.
But the first stage dropped.
U.S. Treasury Secretary – The United States has no financial limits on supporting international terrorism
The U.S. Treasury Secretary gave an interview to right-wing Sky News this week and told viewers that the United States can (source):
The United States certainly has the ability to stand with Israel and support its military needs, and we can and must support Ukraine against Russia.
Condemn and arm a force that opposes illegal occupation, while not condemning but arming a state that engages in illegal occupation and human rights violations.
This is America for you.
But no one asked where the money came from?
But if there was a program designed to help the poor or provide jobs for all, the screams about government bankruptcy would go up to 11!
bomb hospital
The Australian government has tabled a motion to condemn attacks on Israel by the so-called terrorist group Hamas.
It has never tabled a motion condemning Israel’s illegal occupation, the burning of Palestinian homes, and the killing of Palestinian citizens by the IDF, including the murder of journalist Shireen Abu Akheh.
They always remain silent on these issues.
But now our government’s leaders are posturing about Hamas’s appalling behavior, and our defense minister is claiming that attacks on Israel are completely “unprovoked.”
I wonder what he means by provocation?
In the House of Representatives, the Greens tried to amend the motion to include “war crimes committed by the State of Israel” and remove the phrase “our country stands with Israel and recognizes its inherent right to self-defense.”
The motion was voted in favor of 107 to 7, the government lost, and the original motion was passed.
The same process took place in the House of Lords and Senate, with the Greens trying to amend the government’s motion with words of condemnation:
…the war crimes committed by the State of Israel, including the bombing of Palestinian civilians, and calls on all parties to immediately cease fire and end the Gaza war…
…To achieve peace, Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestinian territories must end
The Australian government was also quick to condemn Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine in 2014.
But when it comes to Israel’s deliberate and illegal occupation of Palestinian territories and the appalling suffering it inflicts on its citizens living there, including their children, our government and main opposition parties are silent.
mute.
I wonder how they felt this morning when we learned that the Israel Defense Forces had carried out criminal bombings of Gaza hospitals, killing hundreds of women, children and patients.
I know the origin of the explosion is uncertain and the IDF denies it and claims it was Hamas.
Remember, the Israeli government and the IDF also denied this act before evidence forced them to finally confess to the murder of Shireen Abu Akler.
This morning there is mounting evidence that the edict that destroyed the hospital last night could not have come from Hamas because they do not have the capability to launch such a weapon.
Will the Australian government today table a new motion calling for Israel’s leaders to be tried for war crimes and all aid to the country to be withdrawn?
No chance.
This is an indictment of the ethics and morals of our political leadership and all those who support them.
This is a moral I do not agree with.
Israel is a terrorist state by any definition, and continued support for it by Western governments has implicated them in the same terrorist activities.
Launching Friday – October 20, 2023
Our new – MMMTed – The project is coming to fruition and will be released to the public on Friday.
pay attention!
All details will be announced here this Friday.
Music – Nai Barghouti – We will be back
I think that’s appropriate today.
Nai Barghouti is a classically trained Palestinian singer and flutist from Ramallah, known worldwide for her combination of traditional vocal styles. arabic muqam – A melodic pattern in the style of Western jazz.
This song – Raj’een (We Will Be Back) was recorded in 2021.
The word “mother” in the song refers to Palestine.
Relatedly, she was banned from playing some concerts in Egypt in August because the country was chatting with Israel and Americans and didn’t like her pro-Palestinian message.
That’s enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2023 William Mitchell. all rights reserved.
