Industrial production was in line with consensus (-0.2% m/m vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.3%). Below is a picture of some of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with monthly GDP and GDPNow.
figure 1: Non-farm payroll employment incorporates preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), using Bloomberg consensus implied levels as of 12/4 (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), excluding transfers in 2017 personal income $ (bold green), 2017 manufacturing and trade sales $ (black), 2017 consumption $ (light blue), 2017 monthly GDP $ (pink), GDP second release (blue bars) and GDPNow for 2023Q4 as of 12/15 (lavender box), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd Edition, contains comprehensive revisions, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (12/1/2023 release), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaand the author's calculations.
Note that as of today, Q4 GDPNow is at 2.6% (quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted growth), up from 1.2% on December 7th. The New York Federal Reserve's fourth-quarter interest rate forecast is now 2.21% (the first-quarter interest rate in 2024 is 1.98%).
