Popularity. noun
- An outbreak of a disease that spreads rapidly and affects many people at the same time: an epidemic outbreak
- The product of an outbreak or sudden rapid spread, growth, or development
The opioid epidemic affects a large number of Americans. Data in 2019 shows that more than 15,500 people died from opioids in 2019. Many epidemics are contagious in nature because they spread from one person to another. Does this model of infectious disease also apply to the opioid epidemic?
According to a paper from NBER Adamopoulou et al. (2024) The answer is “yes”. When a person has a friend who uses opioids, that person is more likely to use opioids.
Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we focused on adults ages 25-34 and their high school best friends. Using instrumental variable techniques to estimate peer effects in opioid abuse. Serious injury in the previous year was used as an instrument for opioid misuse to estimate the causal effect of an individual who abuses opioids on the likelihood that his or her best friend also abuses opioids. The estimated peer effects were significant: among the 17% who had ever abused opioids, having a best friend who reported a serious injury in the previous year was about 7% more likely to have abused opioids themselves. percentage point. This effect is driven by people without college degrees and people who live in the same county as their best friends.
The complete working paper is here.hat tip marginal revolution.
