Sunday, May 24, 2026

“Grocery prices soar. This undermines Biden's economic pitch”


This is the title of an article Burundi today.

This is a picture of the title Consumer Price Index and the “Family Food” category.

figure 1: Title CPI (blue) and Household Food (yellow-green), both in the log 2021M01=0. NBER-defined recession peak-to-trough dates appear gray. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), FRED, NBER, and author's calculations.

This article uses the past tense – grocery prices are correct have rise. However, as the chart shows, domestic food inflation has declined recently. Figure 2 depicts instantaneous inflation (a=4, T-12 according to Eeckhout (2023)).

figure 2: Headline Consumer Price Index Instant Inflation (blue) and Household Food (yellow-green). NBER-defined recession peak-to-trough dates appear gray. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), FRED, NBER, and author's calculations.

In fact, monthly household food inflation was zero in February.



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