Three shocking charts about the spread of Covid in Missouri (from 7/19 Wabo), and some economic indicators:
source: WaPo, 7/19/2021.
source: WaPo, 7/19/2021.
source: WaPo, 7/19/2021.
Will these trends affect economic activity? There are (at least) two offsetting effects. Even in the absence of lockdowns and other public health measures, high-touch activities (restaurants, etc.) will be reduced if the perceived risk is increased. On the other hand, Missouri is in this situation, partly because the risk assessment of people (or political leaders) has not been completed. (It may also be that the value of life is very low-it is difficult to evaluate with the data at hand).
CDC Ensemble Forecast As of July 19, Missouri:
source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, July 19, 2021.
So far, the impact of economic activity has not been clearly shown in conventional indicators (although in June, according to preliminary estimates, Missouri was already declining).
figure 1: Coincidence index for Missouri (blue bold), Arkansas (red), Florida (tan), Kansas (brown), Louisiana (green), South Dakota (purple), and the United States (black bold) , All in the log, standardized to 2021M03 = 0. Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve, The author’s calculations.
They don’t even appear clearly Weekly indicator developed by Baumeister et al., Only extended to July 10.
The most recent observation of Missouri is today’s first unemployment insurance claim report, the week ending 7/17.
figure 2: The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time in Missouri, as of the weekend, the National Security Agency (blue). source: Missouri Department of Labor, U.S. Department of Labor.
Since the data is Is not After seasonal adjustment and very noisy, people don’t think about jumping too much (although it is twice the standard deviation of the weekly change, 5591> 2514).
