As Russian forces advance inside Ukraine, wrestling an ever-larger part of the country from control of Kyiv, conflict there seems remote to countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
But the wider impact of the war and its significance have not disappeared in Taipei, where the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (ROC) tweets the hashtag #standwithUkraine every day. It first condemned the Russian attack and then warned that China was “waging a cognitive war” against Taiwan aimed at “casting doubts on the resolve of countries such as the European Union and the United States to defend Taiwan’s independence.”
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said in an earlier tweet that she would “strengthen our preparations for military developments in the Taiwan Strait.”
There is no evidence of a Chinese military buildup in China, suggesting the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is trying to use the situation to seize Taiwan, but fears remain that Beijing could use this major European distraction to advance its position.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said right after the Russian invasion that “Taiwan is not Ukraine”, and she was right because while both are small democracies, both have large authoritarian neighbors that have territorial claims on them countries, but the similarities end there. . Geographical, cultural, economic, political and historical experiences are completely different. Especially with the support of the United States, Taiwan’s military is significantly stronger than Ukraine’s, and Taiwan’s economic importance in the global economy is higher.
In fact, Beijing is walking a tightrope in dealing with the hornet’s nest that Putin has provoked in Europe.Professor Robert Eisen, Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand told AMR “Different signals” are emerging in China.
He said China’s abstention in the UN Security Council vote on a resolution to end the Ukraine crisis, leaving only Russia with a veto, was “significant” because despite the “close” relationship between Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping.” Look how strongly the international community reacts to Russia.”
Eisen believes that China is unlikely to start a war to occupy Taiwan, which is merely a “reflex” action by Russia in Europe, and in fact it reduces the possibility. “If China does use force against Taiwan to unify Taiwan with the mainland, it will do so at a time and place of its own choosing,” Eisen said.
He added: “China is watching very carefully the economic sanctions that are developing and the non-military pressure on Russia and what kind of precedent it sets.”
The progress of the Russian invasion and the extent to which NATO provides Ukraine with military support below the threshold of war is also important to China.
The response to Russia has been led by the usual groups in the US and Nordic countries, and in the Asia-Pacific this has expanded to countries such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Most of the international community recognizes Ukraine as an independent sovereign state, but not Taiwan. Is it unlikely that a Ukrainian response to an invasion of Taiwan would be.
Also, Russia’s influence over its neighbors and globally is not the same as China can afford, so Beijing will feel stronger in that regard.
“Just because the U.S. is leading a unified response to Russia over Ukraine doesn’t mean this will move to Asia. There is no NATO alliance of more than 30 countries in the region, it’s just the diversity of alliances and relationships that makes it more complicated,” Eisen said.
But at the end of the day, Taiwan independence, freedom of the seas, and international trade are far more important to the U.S. economy and U.S. power than Ukraine, which is mostly landlocked, so if China makes any attempts on the island, China can expect more from the U.S. strong reaction.
At the same time, it can be expected that China will take full advantage of Russia’s closed market and gain economic benefits from it, because anything that weakens the power of the United States is in China’s favor.
by Tim Fish
