by Marlon Meyer
Northwest Asia Weekly
In this photo released by Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (right) and Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Yuan Cai Zhichang arrive in Taipei, Taiwan for a meeting on August 3. China announced on Aug. 16 that it was imposing visa bans and other sanctions on some Taiwanese politicians, including Tsai Ing-wen, for promoting the democratic independence of the self-governing island from Beijing. (Taiwan Presidential Office via Associated Press)
Zheng Xiaoxian described himself as “very, very nervous”. The Chinese student in his 20s, who studies political science at a school in the area, has multiple reasons to worry about the possibility of war. As a college student in China, he heard some anecdotes from his teachers about the madness of Chinese leaders. He has interned at a Chinese think tank and has a deep understanding of the chaos of politics. Today, he kept checking social media and was shocked to see a Chinese official calling for mass sacrifice. Finally, classes in the United States showed him how the Chinese were massively manipulated during the Korean War.
“What if one of the fighter pilots got emotional and pulled the trigger?” he said, referring to the Chinese fighter jets that have been flying over Taiwanese airspace.
After U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan earlier this month, solemnly requesting a pseudonym to discuss a sensitive topic, he insisted he was talking about his and his generation’s concerns, not advocacy on behalf of his administration .
Either way, the signs he points to are the kinds that China watchers might worry about.
A map recently released by the Chinese government shows the names of shops on every street in Taipei.
“It’s so clear you can even see the green and red traffic lights,” the caption reads.
“We are concerned that this may be a signal that the government is preparing for war,” Zheng said.
Another sign he pointed to was China’s plans to build a 120-mile bridge from the coast to Taipei.
“If they hadn’t made a plan to take over the island, they wouldn’t have said it was ‘in the planning stage’,” he said.
That sentiment underscores at least some of the consequences of the visit, prompting China to move closer to Taiwan’s military exercises than ever before. Ironically,
However, the people who actually face these threats are almost irrelevant.
From the perspective of many Taiwanese, the threat is part of the long-standing background noise they’ve all but grown accustomed to. Even the attitudes of people like Zheng reveal a widening divide between the official positions of the Chinese government and the Chinese people.
“We’re in a period of high tension between the U.S. and China, and that’s something to watch,” said James Lin, a Taiwanese historian at the University of Washington who is currently conducting research in Taiwan. “However, from Taiwan’s point of view, most people are not worried, and some even think that the cost of China’s military, economic and diplomatic retaliation is worth it.”
Lin noted that Taiwan has been under threat from China for decades, including the shelling of Taiwan-controlled islands in the late 1950s. More recently, in 1995 and 1996, during the so-called Third Straits Crisis, then-President Lee Teng-hui gave speeches at his alma mater, Cornell University, despite China’s ban on Taiwanese officials visiting the United States. China, first as a warning, and then in response, fired several missiles off the coast of Taiwan.
Lim said it may be premature to call the current threat a Fourth Strait crisis. But the consensus on the island seems to be that the visit is worth it.
“Many people believe that, given the Chinese threat almost for granted, at the very least, a congressional delegation in the U.S. is a rare event to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations, showing the rest of the world U.S. support for Taiwan in a very public manner, and also Demonstrates a very ordinary state policy of accepting foreign dignitaries, which Taiwan rejects but which many Taiwanese clearly cherish,” he said in an email.
A Taiwanese student studying in the area, who also asked for a pseudonym, looked equally optimistic but cautious.
“When I was a high school student, I was very interested in Taiwan independence, but now I do see Taiwan as just a small country, part of a larger international picture,” he said by Skype call.
As part of his concern, he watches the US Navy Channel.
“They said that in the next five to 10 years, China might try to invade Taiwan,” he said.
A Chinese J-11 military fighter jet flies over the Taiwan Strait on August 5. China has announced more military exercises in Taiwan as the self-governing island’s president meets with new members of the U.S. congressional delegation on Aug. 15. (AP Photo/Wu Hanguan)
During the latest exercise, a friend of his in the southern part of the island told him that Taiwanese fighter jets and helicopters were seen skimming the sky in response to a Chinese exercise just miles from the coast.
He said that Taiwan is always in a state of being sandwiched between great powers.
“But I still hope that this situation will have a positive impact on Taiwan. For example, there is a rhetoric that China is a bully internationally.”
Such sentiments have been prevalent among Taiwanese for some time, according to a Brookings Institution survey released in February with the help of Shelley Rigger, a prominent Taiwanese political scientist. 63% of respondents have a negative view of China, while only 8% have a positive view. Young people’s feelings are stronger.
However, there are signs of ups and downs in opposition to China. In the recent 2020 presidential election, Han Kuo-yu, a candidate for stronger ties with China, won nearly 40 percent of the vote, although he was later recalled as Kaohsiung mayor.
Another Taiwanese student said there were differences even within his own family.
“I have a variety of identities in my family. Many of us have different political ideologies, but we still love each other. I think it’s because, most of the time, we argue on different positions, but as long as we Daily life is okay, and this diverse group of people living on this island still get along very well,” said the student, who also requested to remain anonymous.
However, he said Pelosi’s visit gave everyone “a sense of security.”
One reason is the ongoing threat from China.
“For more than 30 years of my life, China has threatened Taiwan, claiming that they will never give up the use of force to ‘unify’ Taiwan,” he said.
However, the second Taiwanese student was also worried about his children, especially after seeing the war in Ukraine unfold.
“I’m always worried about my children and their future. I don’t want Taiwan to be dragged into a physical battlefield (like Ukraine is now),” he said in an email.
At the same time, he expressed the view that China’s soft power has begun to infiltrate Taiwan and threaten its freedom.
“I firmly believe that Taiwan is Taiwan,” said the second Taiwanese student. “I cherish every moment of Taiwan’s democracy, where we can enjoy freedom of speech, even though every minute counts for the penetration of social media platforms.”
Surprisingly, Zheng, despite all his omens of war, himself has reservations about China’s simple annexation of Taiwan. He and his generation have experienced two “tipping points” in their attitudes toward China and Taiwan.
The first is to see how the Chinese government handles Hong Kong. The second, the case of a woman who was forced to give birth to eight children while in chains went viral online, sparking outrage among many Chinese against the Chinese government, which they see as a symbol of depravity and corruption in their system .
“When someone told me about it, I felt that China couldn’t impose its will on Taiwan,” he said. “At the same time, the Chinese also have feelings for Taiwan.”
The first Taiwanese student said it was not uncommon for Chinese students in the United States to be so alienated from official attitudes, saying he had friends among them.
“You can see them gradually giving up the idea of going home and wanting to stay here,” he said.
Still, if this is the case with Zheng, his sense of American intervention is clear.
“Pelosi’s visit to China is a real shame for China because she has always been a strong critic of China,” he said. “She’s not what you call China’s ‘old friend’.”
Furthermore, he said that whenever the US has a problem with China, it “plays the Taiwan card”.
“Does the U.S. government really care about the people of Taiwan?”
When asked if his generation was concerned about the U.S. using Taiwan as a base for some sort of attack on China, he first clarified what “attack” meant.
Then he said: “When I was in middle school, I was taught that when you’re going to decide how to interact with someone, you should base your thinking on how that person has treated you in the past.”
Mahlon can be contacted by info@nwasianweekly.com.
