A new IPPR report warns that future leaders in the UK and abroad need to help prepare for the unprecedented “crushing point” they may face due to the consequences of climate change and biodiversity loss.
Members of the millennial generation — the group likely to rise to political power in the 2040s and 2050s — will face growing challenges from more frequent and severe natural crises and their knock-on effects.
These could include extreme storms, dangerous heat, famine and conflict, the report said.
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Even if the world succeeds in limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius — still the official target of international climate efforts — climate change and biodiversity loss will have increasingly severe impacts on people and societies around the world.
But the challenge for those in power after 2040 will be even more daunting if the current government fails to deliver the changes needed to make it happen, which seems increasingly likely, the report said.
Larger and more frequent emergencies caused by climate change will become increasingly expensive and could distract future leaders from the task of addressing fundamental problems.
The report warned that the outcome could be a dangerous “critical point” of “cascading consequences”, with governments overwhelmed and societies destabilizing everywhere.
The global upheaval brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic has warned of what could happen.
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Many possible leaders of the UK and the world are now in their early thirties – about half the age of the average person who currently leads us.
The IPPR report warns that even under the most optimistic scenario, future leaders will inherit the growing problems the current government is already facing, including challenges to food security and economic stability, as well as increasing risks of poverty and conflict.
This means they must be prepared to figure out how to:
- overcome Huge political hurdles stand in the way of changes needed to rapidly reduce carbon emissions and prevent further damage to nature
- eliminate increasing carbon in the atmosphere and restoring already damaged domestic and global ecosystems
- accelerate Adapting to the impacts of climate change to enable societies and the physical infrastructure that supports them to withstand worsening social and environmental shocks
Laurie Laybourn-Langton, IPPR Associate Research Fellow and report author, said: “Each year, the failure of current leaders to take appropriate action on the climate and nature crises places an even greater burden on those who will lead us in the future.
“If you’re under 40, you have to achieve a global net-zero transition before you retire. That’s a challenge big enough to pass on to the younger generation.
But on the current trajectory, emerging leaders in their early thirties could also face a chaotic world of extreme weather, famine and conflict as they assume political leadership roles in the 2040s and 2050s.
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She added: “At a time when the impacts of the climate and nature crises are at their height, more can and must be done to help future leaders prepare for the unprecedented challenges of transitioning to a more sustainable society.
“Governments’ responses to the Covid-19 pandemic show how a lack of preparedness for a crisis can cost society dearly.”
The report highlights that failure to stop global temperature rises above 1.5 degrees Celsius significantly increases the risk of triggering a “tipping point” – a moment of sudden rapid, irreversible change with unpredictable consequences for everyone on the planet .
It calls on governments to take more urgent action now – on a larger scale than agreed at the recent COP 26 global meeting – to ease the burden on future leaders.
It also calls for support for emerging future leaders to develop the skills, understanding and resilience to deal with the burdens they will inherit and the decisions they will face.
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Brendan Montague is ecologist.
