Unless global greenhouse gas emissions are further reduced, the impact of climate collapse could cost the UK the equivalent of slashing the size of the economy by at least 7.4% by the end of the century.
This is the ‘significant warming’ contained in a report released today (30 May 2022) Grantham Institute London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Climate Change and Environmental Studies.
A team of UK and US researchers analysed a range of previous studies to estimate the likely consequences of climate change, including “catastrophic damage to the global economic system” and nine “catastrophic disruptions to the global economic system” including agriculture, livestock and fisheries The direct impacts of the “channels of influence”, droughts, floods and coastal damage.
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The researchers hypothesized that current global climate policies will result in global temperatures by 2100 that are 3.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The total cost of climate change will increase from the current equivalent of 1.1% of UK gross domestic product (GDP) to 3.3% in 2050 and 7.4% in 2100.
Reducing global emissions to net zero by 2075 will limit warming to 2.1°C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100 and reduce the cost of damage to the UK from climate impacts to a comparable At 2.4% of GDP, the reduction is 5.0 percentage points lower than the climate change damage to the UK economy from current global policies.
Dr James Rising, who led the analysis at the University of Delaware, said: “These estimates both provide a stark warning of future economic damage to the UK from a lack of climate action, and compare the costs of climate change impacts and emissions reductions. cost”.
“We estimate that the abatement costs for the UK to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 are unlikely to exceed 2% of GDP over the transition period.
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“Furthermore, climate mitigation policies bring additional benefits, such as improving health and revitalizing the economy through investment, equivalent to a 6.1 percent increase in GDP by the end of the century.”
The researchers found that achieving the UK’s net zero target would provide the UK with additional benefits beyond just avoiding climate impacts, which equates to a 3.3% increase in GDP.
They will also further boost UK economic growth by 2.8% by stimulating investment in green industry and infrastructure.
All told, if the UK achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 and the world achieves the same by 2075, the UK economy will gain the equivalent of 9.1% GDP growth by the end of the century.
