A study by the Bureau of Meteorology has warned of a 50-50 chance that temperatures will temporarily exceed the critical 1.5C threshold for global warming over the next five years.
The annual update forecasts that 2022-2026 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, surpassing the current record year of 2016.
Annual average temperatures are likely to be 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in one of the next five years, according to the report for the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
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Under the global Paris climate treaty, countries pledged to limit temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius and work to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius above 19th-century levels to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change.
When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, the chances of temporarily exceeding 1.5C were close to zero, the WMO said.
More extreme weather, crop damage and loss of key systems such as coral reefs are expected due to climate change of about 1.1 degrees Celsius in 2021, and more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, leading to increasing floods, storms, heat waves and wildfires in the world many.
Some vulnerable countries, such as low-lying island nations, have warned that exceeding 1.5C would threaten their very existence.
The report’s lead expert, Dr Leon Hermanson of the Met Office, said: “Our latest climate forecasts suggest that global temperatures will continue to rise, with the possibility that temperatures will even exceed 1.5°C in one year between 2022 and 2026. Celsius. Industrial level.
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“Exceeding 1.5C for a year does not mean that we have breached the hallmark threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does show that we are getting closer to a situation where we may exceed 1.5C for an extended period of time.”
The UK Met Office report said the global annual average surface temperature in any year over the next five years is expected to be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
During this period, there was a 48% chance of exceeding the 1.5C threshold for at least one year, but a small (10%) chance of exceeding the threshold for the entire five-year average.
There is a more than 90% chance that at least one year in 2022-2026 will surpass 2016, the current record hottest year.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the Arctic will bear the brunt of climate change, as warming is expected to be more than three times the global average over the next five winters.
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Professor Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of WMO, said: “This study shows that – with a high level of scientific skill – we are clearly getting closer to temporarily achieving the lower goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
He warned: “The 1.5C number is not a random statistic; it is an indicator that climate impacts will become increasingly harmful to people and the planet as a whole.
“As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise.
“And, on top of that, our oceans will continue to warm and acidify, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise, and our weather will become more extreme.”
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Emily Beament is the PA Environmental Correspondent.
