Human-caused climate change will double the frequency of intense tropical cyclones by mid-century, putting much of the world at risk, a new study shows.
British scientists have been part of an international team examining large-scale data to analyse how rising temperatures affect the frequency and scale of these extreme weather events.
Their study predicts that the cyclone’s maximum wind speed could increase by 20 percent, and it could occur more frequently in places where it is currently rare, such as Cambodia, Laos, Mozambique and many Pacific island nations.
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For the study, which involved Dr Ivan Haigh, Associate Professor of Coastal Oceanography at the University of Southampton, the researchers combined historical dates with global climate models to produce “synthetic” tropical cyclones.
The team’s analysis found that due to climate change, the frequency of the most intense cyclones (from category 3 or higher) will double globally, while weaker tropical cyclones and tropical storms will double over most of the world become less common.
The Bay of Bengal is an exception, where researchers found a decrease in the frequency of intense cyclones.
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The study, published in Science Advances, notes that many of the highest-risk areas will be located in low-income countries.
Asia will see the largest increase in the number of people affected by tropical cyclones, with millions more in China, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam.
Dr Haig said: “It is particularly concerning that our findings highlight that some regions not currently experiencing tropical cyclones may experience climate change in the near future.
“The new tropical cyclone dataset we have produced will greatly help map changing flood risks in tropical cyclone regions.”
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Ben Mitchell is a reporter for PA.
